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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Food inflation could get worse


NEW DELHI: Floods that have ravaged parts of southern and western India is likely to hit the grain production in the country, leading to higher prices of essential commodities such as rice, pulses, jowar, bajra and certain category of vegetables. While the extent of the damage caused by the sudden burst of floods in Karnataka, Andhra, Maharashtra and Goa is yet to be assessed, the governments at the Centre and in states are gearing up to scale down the targets of paddy production.

In Andhra Pradesh alone, some two lakh hectares of paddy fields have been submerged in water. In northern Karnataka, 1.5 lakh hectares of farmland is lying immersed.

The upshot of all this is that paddy production, which is already expected to experience a shortfall of 10 million tonnes because of lack of timely rains in parts of the country, is likely to be hit further, even though the extent of the damage to the crop would be dependent on to how soon flood waters recede. If they abate fast, the damage, according to government officials, would be less. Other standing crops too have taken a knock because of the floods in this region. While Pigeon Pea, a variant of pea grown in northern Karnataka, has been devastated, standing jowar and bajra crops in Maharashtra too have been adversely affected.

The damage-potential to these crops is expected to bring prices of food items, which have already been high in the past one year, under greater stress in the coming months. Even though inflation figures have been low in the past few months, food prices have remained inordinately high, causing a severe burden on the aam aadmi’s budget. The common man has to bear the brunt of sky-rocketing prices of vegetables such as onion, potatoes, beans, gourd (todi) and capsicum.

With the festival season on, housewives have seen their budgetary calculations going astray with the spurt in prices of a certain category of vegetables. While onions were being sold in the retail market at Rs 30 per kg, potato was available only at Rs 20 per kg (its newer variety was more expensive). Todi too was selling at Rs 20 per kg, while French beans was priced at a high of Rs 40 per kg. There were fears that if the prices of onions and potatoes remained unchecked, Congress’ prospects in the upcoming round of assembly polls in Maharashtra and Haryana would suffer a setback.

But there is very little that the government can do to mitigate the suffering of the common man at this juncture. Prices of vegetables were guided more by seasonal factors, and they were expected to remain high in the next few weeks.