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0.5% tragedy and DeMo confession

-The Telegraph

New Delhi: The Demonetisation Demon will gouge India's economic growth in 2016-17 by at least half a percentage point, chief economic adviser Arvind Subramanian told reporters after presenting the Economic Survey a day before the budget.

Subramanian, who was voicing his views for the first time on the deeply polarising subject of demonetisation, rejected the dire prophecies of other Oracles, including his former employer, the International Monetary Fund, that projected a full percentage point decline in India's growth rate to 6.6 per cent.

Without actually putting out a figure for growth rate this fiscal, the chief economic adviser said India's economic growth would be between one-quarter and half a percentage point below the official baseline forecast of 7 per cent.

The Survey is perhaps the first official acceptance that Modi's decision to ban high denomination notes has hit both the Indian economy and the common man.

"Short-term costs have taken the form of inconvenience and hardship, especially those in the informal and cash-intensive sectors of the economy who have lost income and employment," the report admitted.

Growth is expected to return to normal next fiscal when it is expected to range between 6.75 and 7.5 per cent as the amount of cash that circulates through the economy returns to near-normal levels.

Earlier this month, the Central Statistics Office (CSO) had trimmed its growth forecast to 7.1 per cent this year but had not baked the impact of demonetisation into its projection. Former Prime Minister Manmohan Singh had projected a 2 per cent slowdown in growth.

The Survey advocated rapid, demand-driven remonetisation, easier tax rules and lower tax rates - serving up a range of suggestions that could feed into tomorrow's budget. "These actions would allow growth to return to trend in 2017-18, following a temporary decline in 2016-17," the report said.

The report said the risks that the economy faced would come from a rising trend of global protectionism and surging crude oil prices that Subramanian felt was unlikely to top $65 per barrel.

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