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35 charts decoding the 2022 Uttar Pradesh verdict: bipolarisation and BJP consolidation -Gilles Verniers, Srishti Gupta and SV Sai Vikas

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The trajectories of parties’ vote share since 1993 indicate the magnitude of transformation of the state’s politics.

The Bharatiya Janata Party has made history by winning a consecutive election in Uttar Pradesh at the end of a five-year term, something that only Sampurnanand, the state’s second chief minister, succeeded to do in 1957.

The BJP’s victory is all the more impressive as it also increased its vote share, from 39.7% to 41.3%. The relative decline of seats – 255 against 312 in 2017 – comes from the fact that the Samajwadi Party did well in a bipolar election. When a multipolar party system becomes more bipolar, the votes of parties on the decline usually get distributed between the two ascending parties, lifting both boats.

The Samajwadi Party scored its highest vote share ever (32%) but could not convert the votes into as many seats as it had hoped. The SP failed to break the social coalitions that have enabled the BJP to now win four consecutive elections in Uttar Pradesh.

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