Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 148]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 181]
Notice (8): Undefined variable: urlPrefix [APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8]latest-news-updates/7-to-4-5-ex-cea-cuts-gdp-estimate-between-2011-12-and-2016-17-4687332.html"/> LATEST NEWS UPDATES | 7 to 4.5%: Ex-CEA cuts GDP estimate between 2011-12 and 2016-17 | Im4change.org
Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

7 to 4.5%: Ex-CEA cuts GDP estimate between 2011-12 and 2016-17

-The Indian Express

While official estimates have pegged average annual growth at around 7 per cent during this period, actual GDP growth is likely to have been lower, at around 4.5 per cent, says Subramanian

New Delhi:
In the midst of a raging controversy over India’s economic growth under the new GDP series, former Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian has concluded that the country’s growth has been overestimated by around 2.5 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2016-17.

While official estimates have pegged average annual growth at around 7 per cent during this period, actual GDP growth is likely to have been lower, at around 4.5 per cent, says Subramanian in a recent research paper published at Harvard University. It forms the basis of his piece in The Indian Express today.

One sector where the magnitude of mis-measurement is particularly large is manufacturing. Pre-2011, manufacturing value added in national accounts tended to be tightly correlated with the manufacturing component of the index of industrial production and manufacturing exports. But, thereafter, the relationship has broken down, notes the former CEA.

Subramanian’s analysis is based on 17 key economic indicators which tend to be highly correlated with GDP growth. However, it does not include the controversial MCA-21 database which forms an integral part of the CSO’s calculation.

Please click here to read more.