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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

A rough patch

-The Indian Express

High inflation reduces room for rate cuts. With limited fiscal space, FM must spell out plans to revive growth.

Latest inflation data seems to corroborate fears articulated by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) in its December meeting when it refrained from cutting the benchmark repo rate. Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), has surged to 7.35 per cent in December 2019, up from 5.54 per cent in November, according to data from the National Statistical Office. With headline inflation well above the RBI’s upper bound target of 6 per cent — it is expected to remain elevated in the coming months, may well surpass the RBI’s estimate for the second half of this fiscal year — it reduces the space for further easing of policy rates, even after clarity over the extent of the Centre’s fiscal slippage emerges. The 10-year G-sec yields have reacted sharply to these developments, rising to 6.67 on Tuesday, partially offsetting the impact of the RBI’s recent open market operations. This combination of weak economic activity and higher than expected supply-side inflationary pressures has put the inflation-targeting regime under test.

Much of the rise in the headline inflation number can be traced to higher food prices. Food inflation has risen to a near six-year high of 14.12 per cent in December 2019, up from 10.01 per cent in the previous month. Much of this spurt is due to vegetable prices, which have surged to 60.5 per cent in December, contributing nearly 3.7 percentage points to the headline numbers. Prior to this data, there was an argument for overlooking this spurt in food prices, and easing rates further, as this spike in inflation is likely to be transitory. But the price rise has been much more pronounced.

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