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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Calcutta at ‘extreme risk’
-The Telegraph
 
Calcutta is among six cities worldwide at “extreme risk” of facing natural hazards of climate change, including the impacts of sea level rise, but with a poor capacity to respond, says a report released today.

The report on climate change vulnerability from Maplecroft, a private UK-based risk analysis company, also predicts that Mumbai, Chennai and Delhi are among 10 cities across the world that face a “high risk” of the impacts of climate change.

The report is based on an analysis of nations’ and cities’ vulnerability as well as capacity to adapt and respond to the threats of climate change, linked to a gradual rise in global temperatures caused by increasing emission of greenhouse gases.

The analysis dubs Dhaka the most vulnerable city with a risk score of 1.06 on a scale where zero represents maximum risk and 10 least risk. Chittagong follows with a score of 1.26 while Calcutta scores 2.16. In contrast, New York is at 6.4 and London 8.0.

“We analysed three key elements in ranking the cities — the threats of natural hazards, sensitivity of their populations and the capacity of local governments to respond,” said Charlie Beldon, an atmospheric physicist and environmental analyst with Maplecroft.

The analysis suggests that some megacities of Asia have the highest rates of population growth along with extreme vulnerability to climate change. “Urbanisation is an enhancer of risk,” Beldon told The Telegraph over the phone.

The report said Calcutta’s population was expected to rise to 18.7 million by 2020 and the city is “highly exposed to sea level rise and coastal flooding”. The predicted rise in population will place more people within these vulnerable areas, it said.

India has been classified as a nation at “extreme risk” with a risk score of 28, while the other leading emerging economies have higher scores in the medium risk range — South Africa (48), China (98) and Brazil (116). The lower the score, the higher the risk.

Coastal areas of Bengal, Orissa and Andhra Pradesh and the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are among the most vulnerable zones within India, according to the sub-national analysis. The coastal areas are exposed to tropical cyclones, storm surges and localised storms, while Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are vulnerable because of their dense population and heavy reliance on agriculture.

Indian scientists who have independently analysed sea level data from different ports believe there is evidence for a 1.3mm per year rise in the average sea level along the Indian coastline, although the rise may vary with location.

A study by M.R. Ramesh Kumar, A.S. Unnikrishnan and M. Manimurali from the National Institute of Oceanography, Goa, four years ago had indicated a net sea level rise of 5.7mm per year over 55 years at Diamond Harbour. In contrast, the sea level rise in Mumbai was 1.2mm per year over a 113-year period.

According to the Maplecroft analysis, Haiti tops the list of nations and territories most at risk, while Iceland is the least at risk. Among countries at extreme risk, Bangladesh with a population of more than 140 million is ranked number 2. India is ranked 28.

Zimbabwe, Sierra Leone, Madagascar and Congo are among 20 nations most vulnerable to climate change. It said Europe in general had low sensitivity and a good capacity to adapt to the impact of extreme climate events, but low-lying coastal areas of Belgium, The Netherlands and the UK were likely to be exposed to the risks of sea level rise.

Canada and the US are classified as low risk nations with scores of 173 and 160. But, the report cautioned, the destruction and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina “revealed how even the most economically strong countries can at times find themselves at extreme vulnerability to climatic events”.