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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Can New Mortality Data Explain India's Low COVID Death Numbers? -Rukmini S

-IndiaSpend.com

As researchers caution against declaring India's second COVID-19 wave to be less deadly than the first, we look for clues in excess mortality data from Kerala and Mumbai to shed light on India's comparatively low COVID-19 mortality

Chennai: More than one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, India is beginning to take the first steps towards answering a key question--is there something unusual about COVID-19 mortality in India? Mortality is at the heart of the question of whether India has been an outlier in the global trajectory of the virus, or not. Despite having the third-most confirmed COVID-19 cases globally, behind only the US and Brazil, the US has 3.5 times as many deaths as India, and Brazil is moving closer to double India's deaths.

India's position as an outlier on COVID-19 fatalities rests on the assumption that India is accurately counting COVID-19 deaths. To varying degrees, all countries are undercounting COVID-19 deaths because, for instance, deaths due to the disease could be attributed to other causes in cases where COVID-19 was not diagnosed.

Many cities and countries are now estimating the number of COVID-19 deaths they missed by comparing current estimates for deaths from all causes with previous years'.

South Africa, for instance, estimated "the actual number of deaths that have occurred in the country and calculate[d] the number of excess deaths over and above the numbers that would be expected had the historical mortality trends prior to the COVID-19 pandemic continued". In doing so, South Africa found that the cumulative number of excess deaths from natural causes between May 3, 2020 (after the country's first COVID-19 lockdown) and January 23, 2021 (during the country's second surge of COVID-19 infections and second lockdown) was greater by 125,000 than the numbers predicted by historical trends.

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