Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. 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	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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$disp = &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this..."/>
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                <strong>Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy</strong></h1>
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                <div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>What can Durban deliver?</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>How to build a Plan D</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em></div>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67eced984a662-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67eced984a662-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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$disp = &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this..."/>
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                <strong>Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy</strong></h1>
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                <div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>What can Durban deliver?</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>How to build a Plan D</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em></div>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67eced984a662-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67eced984a662-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67eced984a662-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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&lt;br /&gt;
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
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&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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	&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp;amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy&#039;,
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	&#039;description&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&amp;nbsp;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;
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$disp = &#039;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&amp;ldquo;Plan A&amp;rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&amp;nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &amp;lsquo;carbon debt&amp;rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&amp;rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&amp;deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;What can Durban deliver?&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &amp;quot;cliff of 2012,&amp;quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &amp;quot;fast start finance&amp;quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&amp;nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&amp;nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;How to build a Plan D&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &amp;lsquo;green growth.&amp;rsquo; &amp;nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&amp;nbsp;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;In spite of &amp;lsquo;economic permafrost&amp;rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&amp;rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&amp;rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&amp;rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&amp;rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&amp;deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &amp;ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Nick Robins is head of HSBC&#039;s Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&lt;div style=&quot;text-align: justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &amp;quot;Plan D for Durban &amp;ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&amp;quot; Reproduced with permission.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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                <strong>Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy</strong></h1>
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                <div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>What can Durban deliver?</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>How to build a Plan D</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em></div>               </font>
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<br />
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<div style="text-align: justify">
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>What can Durban deliver?</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>How to build a Plan D</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em><br />
</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em>
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	'metaTitle' => 'LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy',
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this...',
	'disp' => '<div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>What can Durban deliver?</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>How to build a Plan D</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em></div>',
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	'title' => 'Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan &amp; Katyayini Krishnamoorthy',
	'subheading' => '',
	'description' => '<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>What can Durban deliver?</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>How to build a Plan D</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
&nbsp;
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<br />
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em><br />
</em>
</div>
<div style="text-align: justify">
<em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em>
</div>',
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Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this...'
$disp = '<div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (&ldquo;Plan A&rdquo;) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from&nbsp;these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical &lsquo;carbon debt&rsquo;. The result was the soft consensus in last year&rsquo;s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2&deg;C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>What can Durban deliver?</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the &quot;cliff of 2012,&quot; when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in &quot;fast start finance&quot; for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks:</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and&nbsp;papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in&nbsp;funding after the end of 2013;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">&ndash; Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>How to build a Plan D</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver &lsquo;green growth.&rsquo; &nbsp;We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.</div><div style="text-align: justify">&nbsp;</div><div style="text-align: justify">In spite of &lsquo;economic permafrost&rsquo; in the industrialised world, Australia&rsquo;s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year&rsquo;s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country&rsquo;s strategy for growth (see China&rsquo;s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011).</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify">At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2&deg;C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation &ndash; all essential in a world of rising resource stress.</div><div style="text-align: justify"><br /></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC.</em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em><br /></em></div><div style="text-align: justify"><em>This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, &quot;Plan D for Durban &ndash; How to deliver a real climate deal.&quot; Reproduced with permission.</em></div>'
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Climate talks: A Plan D for Durban by Nick Robins, Zoe Knight, Wai-Shin Chan & Katyayini Krishnamoorthy

Global climate strategy needs a new storyline. The original United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) (“Plan A”) was signed almost 20 years ago, but lacked the specifics to drive real action. The Kyoto Protocol aimed to resolve this by curbing emissions from the industrialised world, but the US refused to play its part (Plan B). Just as Kyoto came into effect in 2005, the world was changing, with emerging economies not only driving the global economy, but also emissions growth. The Copenhagen summit in 2009 succeeded in delivering unprecedented commitments from these emerging economies. But the industrialised world was unable to follow through in terms of its historical ‘carbon debt’. The result was the soft consensus in last year’s Cancun Agreements to holding global warming to 2°C this century (Plan C). But the commitments made at the same meeting only took the world half way to that goal by 2020. What can Durban deliver? One year on from Cancun and global climate talks are one year closer to the "cliff of 2012," when the first commitment period of the Kyoto Protocol expires and when the $US30 billion in "fast start finance" for developing countries runs out. Durban has three tasks: – Arrive at a diplomatic stopgap on the Kyoto Protocol that keeps its mechanisms alive and papers over the gulf between industrialised and developing countries on future carbon targets;   – Agree the design of the new Green Climate Fund and ensure that there is no gap in funding after the end of 2013;   – Set out a roadmap to a truly global deal, ideally with a deadline of 2015. In addition, we believe that Durban will need to avoid a flare up of the mounting controversy over EU inclusion of aviation into its Emission Trading Scheme (ETS). But Durban can also take a set of pragmatic decisions on adaptation, forests, monitoring and technology. How to build a Plan D Reaching a mandate for a global agreement at Durban is one thing; negotiating an effective global deal is another. For us, the lesson of Copenhagen is that climate security will not be delivered through climate policy alone. The propositions that have underpinned climate strategy so far no longer work (see Chart 1). The science is robust, but is insufficient to drive policy; the industrialised countries have ceased to lead; and a global carbon market is a distant prospect. In their place, three news propositions underpin emerging thinking. Climate factors exacerbate underlying resource stress (see Scoring Climate Change Risk, 9 August 2011) and emerging markets are now in the vanguard. And it is through industrial strategies for low-carbon growth that the gigatonnes of GHGs will be eliminated.   To get a deal that has real positive impact on both economic prosperity and climate security, a global Plan D will need to mirror the packages of measures that governments and business are already putting in place at the national level to deliver ‘green growth.’  We argue that, in terms of climate policy, a dominant focus on international negotiations masks the progress that is being made at the national level.   In spite of ‘economic permafrost’ in the industrialised world, Australia’s new Clean Energy Future plan, approved in November, goes beyond carbon to boost investments in renewable energy and energy efficiency as well as giving tax-breaks for households. On a much larger scale, this year’s 12th Five-Year Plan in China also integrates reductions in energy, carbon and water intensity in the country’s strategy for growth (see China’s rising climate risk, October 6, 2011). At a global level, adopting this real world approach would mean negotiating just as hard for carbon targets, finance and markets, as well as adaptation within the UNFCCC. Bu t it would also require supplementing a classical climate treaty with international targets, finance and markets for energy efficiency, renewable and environmental health. For example, we estimate that halving the energy intensity of the global economy by 2030 alone would be enough to bring GHGs down to levels needed to hit the 2°C target. Doing this would also bring clear spill over benefits in terms of fuel costs, energy security and innovation – all essential in a world of rising resource stress. Nick Robins is head of HSBC's Climate Change Centre of Excellence; Zoe Knight is an analyst at HSBC; Wai-Shin Chan is a CFA and analyst at HSBC; and Katyayini Krishnamoorthy is an Associate at HSBC. This is an edited extract from the HSBC Global Research report, "Plan D for Durban – How to deliver a real climate deal." Reproduced with permission.