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Covid-19 cases on rise in eight states

-The Telegraph

Maharashtra leads the surge, Kerala improves, says health ministry

India’s health ministry reported over 40,000 new Covid-19 cases on Saturday, raising the count of patients by over 17,000 in a single day after a week during which the spread of the virus was the fastest since August.

The 40,953 lab-confirmed Covid-19 cases, over 25,000 in Maharashtra alone, documented till 8am on Saturday increased the number of patients under medical supervision to over 288,000 from around 271,000 a day earlier, the health ministry said.

The daily new cases are rising in eight states — Maharashtra, Tamil Nadu, Punjab, Madhya Pradesh, Gujarat, Karnataka, Delhi and Haryana — the ministry said. In Kerala, the epidemic has shrunk with the seven-day average of daily new cases down from over 4,400 a month ago to about 1,800 on Saturday.

Six states — Maharashtra, Punjab, Kerala, Karnataka, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh — make up 84 per cent of the new cases.

“Except in Kerala, we see exponential growth back in almost all the 16 states that have the largest numbers of active cases,” said Sitabhra Sinha, a senior scientist at the Institute of Mathematical Sciences, Chennai, who has been tracking the epidemic’s course over the past year.

Sinha’s calculations show that the effective reproductive number or R — a measure of the speed of transmission of the virus — for India as a whole has increased to 1.19, the highest since August. Any value above 1 represents an exponential growth.

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