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CPM’s slide deeper than diagnosed


Calcutta, Oct 20: The CPM central committee appears to have underestimated the decline in the party’s vote in Bengal in the Lok Sabha polls last May.

The final poll data compiled by the National Election Study (NES) now shows that the decline in the party’s — and the Left Front’s — vote was sharper than what had been calculated earlier.

Also, the erosion was spread across all social groups, including the Left’s traditional support bases among tribal and Scheduled Caste voters.

While expressing concern at the erosion of the party’s support base, the central committee’s analysis argued that the “main base of the party is intact by and large” in Bengal, where the Left secured 1.85 crore votes.

But the final NES data and the post-poll survey done by the New Delhi-based Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) present a picture that would contradict the central committee’s attempt to downplay the decline.

According to the NES, the CPM’s vote in Bengal in 2009 fell to 33.10 per cent from 38.57 per cent of the total votes, while its main rival, the Trinamul Congress, saw its vote jump from 21.04 per cent to 31.20 per cent between the two polls.

The Left Front got 43.3 per cent votes this time, compared with 50.81 per cent in 2004, while the TMC-Congress alliance got 44.6 per cent.

The alienation of different social groups from the CPM should be particularly worrying for the party. In terms of occupation, the biggest setback for the Left was among farmers — a loss of 26 percentage points — followed by a 16 percentage point decline in support among skilled and semi-skilled supporters in rural areas.

The only occupational groups that stood solidly by the Left were salaried people in rural areas, whose support rose by 23 percentage points, and skilled and semi-skilled workers in urban areas. Interestingly, despite the reverses it suffered in villages, the support for the Left among marginal farmers and sharecroppers rose by 1 percentage point. Among the social categories, only the Scheduled Tribes and Scheduled Castes remained loyal to the Left. The ST vote for the Left bucked the overall trend to rise from 39 per cent to 47 per cent, while the SC vote remained stable at 55 per cent.

Party sources, however, indicated that the CPM now faced a daunting task to retain this base among SC/ST voters. For over three decades, the Left has secured over 50 per cent of the votes in Assembly constituencies reserved for SC/ST candidates. Bengal has 69 such constituencies.

But the anti-government agitation in Lalgarh and the Maoist offensive against the CPM have already dented the party’s bases in these constituencies, particularly in the three districts of West Midnapore, Bankura and Purulia. The operations against Maoists by the joint forces of the Centre and the state have further alienated the party from large sections of people in these districts.

Equally worrying for the CPM is the loss of support among Muslims — from 47 per cent in 2004 to 36 per cent in 2009 — which is directly related to the Opposition’s campaign over land acquisition for new industries and the perception within the community that the Left Front government had offered it little economic and social benefits.

Turning the tide would require massive damage-control exercises both by the party and the government.

The party seems to have identified two social groups in particular — the rural middle class and the Muslims — for special attention.

The announcement by the school education minister that 6,000 new schools will be set up are an indication of this plan to reverse the trend. CPM state secretariat member Mohammad Salim has been given the task of leading the charge to regain Muslim support.

Land reforms minister Abdur Rezzak Mollah, who could have helped Salim in this, especially in the villages, has problems with the party leadership, including chief minister Buddhadeb Bhattacharjee, on major policy issues.

But the Siliguri municipal poll results last month showed that the Opposition charge is getting stronger and making the Left vulnerable in new areas.

Contrary to the central committee’s optimism, there seem to be few areas where the CPM’s base is likely to remain intact in the run-up to next year’s elections to 82 civic bodies and then to the Assembly polls in 2011.