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Current Inflationary Upsurge in India a Centrally-administered Phenomenon -Prabhat Patnaik

-Newsclick.in

The jacking up of prices of a universal intermediary while at the same time cutting down on subsidies that could potentially insulate segments of the working people from the acceleration of inflation is proof of the fact.

The official wholesale price index for March 2021, which was released a few days ago shows it to be 7.39% higher than for March 2020. Such a high rate of inflation has not been seen in India for over eight years. It was only in October 2012 that the country had witnessed a 7.4% inflation over the corresponding month of the previous year.

The Union government while releasing the index cautioned that since the country had witnessed a strict lockdown a year ago, the base figure on which inflation was being calculated was suspect, an underestimate based on insufficient response in the base period. Even this argument, however, can provide little comfort: the inflation rate in March 2021, compared to the previous month, February 2021, comes to a whopping 1.57%.

We are clearly witnessing an inflationary upsurge. And it has been building up for some time: it was 2.51% in January (over the previous January), and 4.17% in February. The question is: why are we having this upsurge?

There is massive unemployment in the country and equally massive idle productive capacity. There are also substantial foodgrain stocks with the government. The economy in short continues to be demand-constrained and there is no question of any inflation arising because of a general shortage. There may be some specific temporary shortages here and there, but they would not explain a sustained inflationary episode, and that, too, on such a scale.

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