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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Delay in monsoon may spell doom for farmers by Nidhi Nath Srinivas

So it's not going to be a normal monsoon . That's hardly surprising. Indian rainfall is erratic in four out of 10 years. About 80% of our land mass is highly vulnerable to drought, floods and cyclones. 50 million Indians are exposed to drought every year.

The agriculture ministry says 68% of India's sown area is subject to drought in varying degrees. Annual average rainfall is 1,160 mm. However, 85% of rainfall is concentrated in 100-120 days of the south-west monsoon. A third of the area receives less than 750-mm rainfall and is chronically drought-prone. In short, we know we are a hot, dry and dusty land, perennially short of fresh water for crops, people, factories and animals. The big question is how fast can we take this knowledge and run.

There is potential to irrigate 140 million hectares or the entire sown area. But forget about targets. Even where dams and canals have been built, fields lie parched. There is no last-mile connectivity linking individual farms to sources of water. Rather like telecom companies erecting transmission towers while we lack mobile phones. Individual farmers are too small and poor to construct pipelines. They can merely watch the water flow by.

Drip irrigation is being aggressively promoted through subsidies but suffers from the same problem. A farmer with not even a well or tank has no use for it. So those in the direst need are also the most excluded from current irrigation schemes.

Thankfully, Nature itself provides many cures for its vagaries. Technology is now available to develop drought-resistant seed that camel-like can manage with very little water. In private and government-run labs, drought-resistant seed for rice, corn, soyabean, mustard, millets, jowar, pulses, cotton and tobacco are waiting for a chance to show the world what they can do.

Not all these seeds are genetically modified. Many have been bred using normal hybrid technology . Given the sheer scale of the water shortage, a savvy government would fast-track these seeds so that farmers cope efficiently with climatic changes and avert human suffering. USA, China, Brazil all promote drought-resistant seed.

Indeed, Indian Council of Agricultural Research , in its Vision 2030 document, released six months ago, says: "Much of the gains in the productivity of the food commodities in the past have been attributed to the genetic alterations of the crops and animals. This will continue to be the primary driver for augmenting productivity in the lesser time, space and costa¦. The time-tested and socially accepted first and second generation biotechnologies will be made use of to speed up breeding processes and to reduce investments on research for increasing yields, minimising production risks, for sustaining environment and for meeting consumer taste and preferences." Monsanto cou-ldn't have phra-sed that better.

Then vision meets reality. Forget fast track, even normal approval processes are delayed. Take the latest example. The Genetic Engineering Approval Committee , in the environment ministry, is responsible for allowing field trials of transgenic seed. Ideally, the GEAC should meet much before the summer sowing so that labs prepare for trials that are usually conducted at multiple locations in several states. Instead of meeting in May, GEAC postponed even its June meeting to July, when sowing is all but over. Once sowing period is lost, it's gone for a year.

To complicate matters, GEAC now also wants all applicants to get prior state government approval for holding trials. With hawk-eyed NGOs keen to pounce, state governments will obviously baulk at giving in-principle approvals before the GEAC does. In this confusion, more time will be lost.

This month, left in the lurch by GEAC are castor, sorghum, potato, groundnut, rice, cotton and corn armed to fight insects, survive drought, tolerate heat, mature early, give better yields and save labour. Their trials may be postponed to 2012, and commercial launch to blue yonder. More seeds will join the wait list. Can the Indian army fight with outdated weapons? Farming is no different and far more critical for survival.

In agriculture, timing is everything. Only farmers know how desperately fields need smart seed, timely watering and inp-uts. Clearly, rain will fail us more often than not. But nothing excu-ses bureaucratic tardiness when we know a crisis is always round the corner.