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Delayed rainfall triggers 15-50% rise in vegetable prices-Jayashree Bhosale & Sutanuka Ghosal

PUNE/ KOLKATA: Heavy rains lashed Mumbai and parched fields in peninsular India as the monsoon resumed its journey after an agonising 11-day interruption, but the unforeseen 41% rain deficit this month has taken its toll, with vegetable prices rising sharply for the third straight month. 

The monsoon, almost stagnant since June 6, touched southern parts of Gujarat and Chhattisgarh on Sunday. It is forecast to gain momentum in the next three days and soak oilseed-growing regions of central India, which are in the grip of a heat wave, as well as paddy-growing West Bengal and Orissa, where farmers have been anxious as the rainy season is already 8-10 days late.

Delayed rainfall, which has made this June one of the driest in many decades, has triggered a 15-50% rise in prices of various vegetables in the past two weeks as crops are wilting under the heat. Potato prices in Uttar Pradesh and Bengal have doubled. Vegetable prices at the wholesale level rose an annual 50% in May, 61% in April and 32% in March. "Vegetable production in the last fortnight has gone down by 30-40%," said Shriram Gadhave, president of the All India Vegetable Growers Association.

But the weather office sees a quick return to normalcy and expects normal agricultural operations to resume as rainfall in July and August is more critical for key crops. After months of exceptionally dry weather, this year's monsoon arrived four days late and was confined to a narrow coastal belt for two weeks, but even in these areas, rainfall was far below normal. On June 13, it advanced a bit but halted again. Weather scientists say Sunday's movement of the weather system is significant.

"This is important because there was a hiatus during the last few days. We expect further advance over next two to three days," said Megha Khole, deputy director-general at the weather office.

The weather office, which has forecast normal rainfall in the vital June-September season, will issue its next forecast for the monsoon by the end of this month. The key element of the next forecast will be the outlook for El Nino, an adverse phenomenon that ravages rainfall patterns from Australia to Brazil due to changes in temperature in the Pacific Ocean. The most respected international forecaster of the El Nino phenomenon, the Australian weather office, has already sounded a note of caution saying all seven models it tracks indicate a return of the dreaded El Nino.

The monsoon's shaky start has worried the agricultural community as it is the only source of irrigation for pulses, oilseeds and cotton in many parts of the country. The weather office's daily forecasts this month had regularly declared that the monsoon would advance in the following two or three days, but this did not happen. On Sunday, weather scientists said favourable atmospheric conditions, including cyclonic circulations over the sea, would strengthen the monsoon and send rain-bearing clouds over various parts of the country.

"After June 13, there was not much advance of the monsoon. But the conditions have already become favourable for further advance of monsoon in next three days over central Maharashtra, interior Karnataka, remaining parts of Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh. Subsequently, the conditions are expected to become favourable for further advance into Orissa, Jharkhand, Bihar and West Bengal," said Sunitha Devi, director (weather forecast), IMD, Pune.

The weather office and farmers in different parts of the country are keeping their fingers crossed as food prices continue to show double-digit inflation since March. "The increase in vegetable prices could be attributed to seasonal factors, but supply constraints also weigh. The field-to-market chain needs to be improved.

Government should take steps to see that headline inflation remains stable at 7.55% that it had registered in May in the next quarter. Otherwise, it will be matter of real concern," said Anis Chakravarty, director and senior economist at financial advisory firm Deloitte Haskins & Sells.