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Despite floods, India faces 5% rain deficit -Amit Bhattacharya

-The Times of India

NEW DELHI: The flood fury in Assam, Bihar, Bengal and Uttar Pradesh has taken attention away from poor monsoon rains in large parts of the country in August. The month has so far seen a 24% rain deficit (till August 18), with central India in particular reeling under a prolonged break in the monsoon.

The lull in rains has opened up a huge 58% shortfall in central India, and 37% in the northwest, for the month of August, pulling down monsoon's performance since June 1 to below-normal zone. The overall deficit now stands at 5% of the long period average.

However, the good news is that the monsoon is set to revive, the India Meteorological Department officials said. "By the weekend, the monsoon will become more active as a low pressure system is forming in the Bay of Bengal. We expect the situation in central India, west coast and the peninsula to improve," said D Sivananda Pai, head of IMD's long-range forecasting division.

The monsoon went into a break in the last week of July, when a weather disturbance, called Madden Julian Oscillation, appeared in the eastern Indian Ocean and depressed rains over the subcontinent.

"Since then, no low pressure systems formed in the Bay of Bengal. Neither did any storm system move west from the Pacific to aid the monsoon here. There were no impulses from the Indian Ocean either," Pai said.

" Now, there's some activity in the Indian Ocean which should progress northward towards India," he added.

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