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Why India’s trade surplus is a warning signal -Parthapratim Pal and Partha Ray

-The Hindu Business Line

Despite the lockdown, India’s trade balance in April and May turned positive. This has been achieved by a sharper decline in imports, pointing towards a contraction of demand in the real economy

The RBI has released India’s balance of payments data for the fourth quarter (January-March) of 2019-20. It shows that during this quarter, India has managed a small current account surplus which is around 0.1 per cent of the GDP. Breakup of the data show that the surplus in the current account is largely driven by a lower trade deficit. This trend has continued and data from the Commerce Ministry show that for the months of April and May 2020, India’s trade balance has improved further and has turned positive after many months.

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