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Early sowing raises hope; all eyes on July rain-Sanjeeb Mukherjee
-The Business Standard


Experts say too early to estimate final output

The sowing of kharif crops is on at breakneck speed in most parts, but analysts say much of the final output will depend on the weather in the next month.

The current weak monsoon phase in most of the northern parts of the country is adding to the worry. Experts believe if the rains go for a prolonged break in July, a crucial month for sowing, much of the gains in June could dry away. The southwest monsoon was 50 per cent above normal till June 10. Since then, the rains have been rather weak over most of North India. Till June 26, rainfall was 37 per cent above normal.

Nevertheless, the early onset of monsoon has been beneficial for kharif crops so far. Till Friday, kharif crops were sown in 25.09 million hectares , nearly a fourth of the total area in which sowing is done during the season. It is 85 per cent more than the area sown during the same period in 2012.

As June is the first of the four-month southwest monsoon, the pace is perhaps among the best in years.

Sowing of sugarcane and cotton, languishing till last week because of below normal rain in parts of Maharashtra, has jumped suddenly. Sugarcane as on Friday was sown on 4.7 million ha, just 3.8 per cent less than last year's. That of cotton is six million ha, almost 78 per cent more than that during the same period last year.

Pulses had been sown in 1.1 million ha till Friday, all of which is a bonus as none was sown during the same period last year. Besides, coarse cereals have been planted in 2.9 million ha, which is a 400 per cent more than the same period last year.

Rice, the biggest foodgrain sown in the season, was planted in 3.9 million ha, 32 per cent more than the area planted during the same period last year.

"The big question now is will the rains maintain their intensity in the coming weeks and that is a big if. If the monsoon remains normal and it continues to rain intermittently, then we can expect a bumper harvest, but all that will depend on the weather in the next three-four weeks. If all goes well, then a 13-14 million tonne jump in foodgrain production could be easily expected but all that will depend on the weather," Ashok Gulati, chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, told Business Standard.

B V Mehta, executive director of the Solvent Extractors Association (SEA), the country's premier body of oilseed processors , said a clear picture on what impact the early rains would have on final output would emerge only around end-July, when sowing is almost complete. "Anything can happen between now and the final harvest time, because if the monsoon goes for a prolonged break, the positive effects of early sowing will vanish," Mehta said.