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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Food, fuel and farms

The Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) and the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) have warned that farm commodity prices, especially foodgrains, may rise by as much as 40 per cent by the end of this decade. This warning must be taken seriously given its implications for food insecurity. FAO’s Agricultural Outlook 2010-2019 projects prices of wheat, coarse grains and dairy products rising by 15 to 40 per cent in real terms (after adjusting for inflation) in the coming decade. Though, at present, international food prices are ruling lower than their peaks in 2008, FAO expects them to begin picking up again due to a surge in consumer demand as well as demand from biofuel producers. The current concern over worsening food security can be traced to near stagnation in food productivity in most part of the world, shrinking public investment in technology generation and diversion of wheat, coarse grains, vegetable oils and sweeteners to biofuel production. Emerging economies like Brazil, India and China have been producing more food, and have the potential to step up production, but they have also rising consumers of food. Hence, their ability to meet the global demand gap is limited. While efforts must be made to step up food production, subsidies that favour biofuels or policies that promote biofuel consumption require immediate review and withdrawal. If policy-makers have to make a choice between food security and green energy for combating climate change, there is need to first address the challenge to food security before biofuels are encouraged in the battle against carbon emissions. Clean energy has many sources, including solar, wind and nuclear. Food has only one source — land. Policies that encourage diversion of land and other resources from food to biofuels must be ended immediately.

That said, the critical question today is whether in the short term reduced food supply is likely to drive food prices up. The answer lies in improving agricultural productivity. The so-called second green revolution is yet to take off, and the revitalisation of extension services remains a pious desire of national planners that few states have paid any attention to. The prime minister’s recent visit to Pantnagar draws attention to the need for better publicly funded agricultural research, but official bodies are either resource-constrained or inert. The Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), which runs over 15 global farm research institutes, is no longer receiving much funding from western countries. Such support actually began fading as soon as the developed countries realised that by helping the developing countries become self-sufficient in food and other farm goods, they were actually losing potential markets for exports. On the other hand, private sector agricultural research is as yet confined to commercial crops and development of hybrid seeds. Clearly, food security requires a comprehensive plan, not just more sops.