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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Good monsoon fills reservoirs, heralds bumper harvest -Sanjeeb Mukherjee
-Business Standard

85%of the country gets normal rains, but Karnataka declares drought

The southwest monsoon season (June to September) across the country in 2016 was 97 per cent of the long period average (LPA). Although it fell short of predictions by the weather office, this was the first normal monsoon in the country since 2013.

If the rainfall is between 96 and 104 per cent of the LPA, it is considered normal. LPA is the average rainfall the country has received since the past 50 years starting from 1951, which is estimated to be 887 cm.  Around 85 per cent of the country’s geographical area received normal or excess rains this season. The deficient 15 per cent area fell in Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab and also parts of Gujarat.

For the fourth straight year, Karnataka declared drought this year too, in around half of the state.

The good rains also filled up the reservoirs. At the end of September, water levels in 91-odd reservoirs were 117 billion cubic metres. This was 74 per cent of their full capacity against 122 per cent last year and 97 per cent of the average storage of the past 10 years.

A normal monsoon is expected to lift the gloom surrounding the rural sector with farm wages and rural demand likely to increase.

According to some reports, farm wages rose 5.3 per cent in July and these could go up further as the monsoon season culminates and the harvest time begins. An increase in farm wages should boost rural consumption of all items — be it consumer durables, gold, or vehicles.

Of the total 36 meteorological sub-divisions, 23 sub-divisions constituting 72 per cent of the total area of the country received normal rainfall and four sub-divisions received excess rainfall (13 per cent of the total area) during the season.

However, nine sub-divisions constituting 15 per cent of the total area of the country received deficient seasonal rainfall. Most of these nine sub-divisions fall under the big states.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which had forecast the rains to be ‘above normal’ at 106 per cent of the LPA with a model error of plus and minus four per cent, got its predictions wrong for the third time in the past 10 years. This was mainly due to miscalculation over the onset of the La Nina weather phenomenon, and unfavourable Indian Ocean Dipole and Madden Julian Oscillation weather phenomena.

According to IMD, the seasonal rainfall over the four regions of North-West India comprising Punjab, Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Rajasthan was around 95 per cent of the LPA, while that over central India was 106 per cent of the LPA.

Rains over  Southern Peninsular India — Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Tamil Nadu and Kerala — was 92 per cent of LPA, while that over East and North-East India was 89 per cent of the 50-year average. North-West India received 584.2 mm of rainfall against a normal of 615.1 mm, while Central India got 1,034.1 mm of showers against a normal of 875.3 mm.

Southern Peninsular India received 661.5 mm of rainfall during the four-month season against a normal of 715.6 mm, while East and North-East India comprising West Bengal, Odisha, Jharkhand, Assam and the north-eastern states received 1,281.5 mm of rainfall against a normal of 1,437.8 mm.

Although normal in many parts of the country, the total quantum of rains was less than normal. But, a fairly even distribution of rains compensated for the loss.

In June, India received rains equivalent to 89 per cent of the LPA, which rose to 107 per cent the next month, again coming down to 91 per cent in August, and 97 per cent in September.

The showers were more or less well distributed throughout the year. This was also the prime reason behind the expected bumper kharif harvest.

This year’s southwest monsoon had advanced into the South Andaman Sea and Nicobar Islands on May 18, two days ahead of schedule. Thereafter, its progress was sluggish. That’s why it reached the Indian mainland off the Kerala coast only on June 8, after a week’s delay.

The monsoon covered the entire country by July 13 — two days ahead of schedule. The rains started withdrawing from west Rajasthan on September 15 — a delay of two weeks — and by October 10, it had withdrawn from most parts of North-West India.

The withdrawal has been delayed, which should augur well for the coming rabi crop as it would leave good residual moisture in the soil for a bumper harvest. It has withdrawn from most parts of Northwest India as on October 10.

Good rains in July and part of August pushed India’s kharif sowing to record highs with the area under pulses leading the way with a 30 per cent rise in acreage.

The Centre, according to its first advanced estimate released a few days ago, expects 2016 Kharif food grains production to be at a record high of 135 million tonnes – 11 million tonnes more than last year’s with pulses production increasing to 8.75 million tonnes against 5.54 million tonnes last year.

The bumper Kharif harvest should bring down food inflation in the coming months. However, this might not be the case for crops like Chana.
 
The good rains also filled up the reservoirs. At the end of September, water levels in 91-odd reservoirs were 117 billion cubic metres. This was 74 per cent of their full capacity against 122 per cent last year and 97 per cent of the average storage of the past 10 years.

SOWING HAPPINESS

* Around 85% of the country’s geographical area received normal or excess rains this season
* The deficient 15% area fell in Karnataka, Kerala, Punjab and also parts of Gujarat
* Farm wages rose 5.3% in July;  expected to go up further as the monsoon season culminates and the harvest time begins
* For the fourth straight year, Karnataka declared drought this year also, in around half of the state