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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

How the Rise of Global Inflation Will Play Out in Indian Politics -MK Venu

-TheWire.in

Today, fuel prices are at an all-time high. Once the genie of inflation is out of the bottle, as it does once in a decade or so, no amount of narrative spinning by the Modi government will work.

This year is likely to herald the return of global inflation in ways not seen in the past 20 years. We have witnessed inflation remaining rather subdued from the beginning of this century. So much so that many US economists had pronounced the death of inflation despite massive liquidity infusion by the Federal Reserve since 2003 and US debt-to-GDP ratios reaching new highs over the last 20 years.

US debt-to-GDP was around 45% in the 1980s and is now well past 100%. Most major economies have seen rising debt-to-GDP ratios which have got further accentuated post-pandemic. US Federal Reserve balance sheet was about $4.7 trillion before the pandemic. At the time of the 2008 financial crises, the Federal Reserve balance sheet size was only about $750 billion. Today it is over $ 8 trillion. Increase in central bank balance sheet is a proxy for printing extra currency. One estimate is over 40% of dollars in circulation was created in just the last two years.

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