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IMD predicts normal monsoon this year; sends positive signals to farm sector -Vishwa Mohan

-The Times of India

NEW DELHI: The India Meteorological Department (IMD), country's national weather forecaster, on Tuesday predicted normal monsoon rainfall for the year, sending a positive signal to the farm sector and the overall economy.

"Even the distribution of the rainfall is expected to be good this year," said IMD chief KJ Ramesh, sounding quite optimistic about the prospect of having a good year for the country's agriculture. Good spatial distribution of rainfall is an important indicator of pan-India prospect of having better farm output.

Quantitatively, the seasonal monsoon rainfall this year is likely to be 96% of the Long Period Average (LPA) with an error of +/- 5%.

The LPA of the seasonal rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1951-2000 is 89 cm. The Monsoon is considered as "normal", if the average rainfall is between 96-104% of the LPA.

"There is 38% probability of improvement of monsoon rainfall beyond 96% of the LPA," said Ramesh while announcing the IMD's first stage forecast of the 2017 southwest monsoon season for the June-September period.

The IMD will come out with its update in June when it would be able to predict month-wise and region-wise rainfall. Since there will be more information available on the evolution of El Nino or La Nina (sea surface temperature conditions over the Pacific) by that time, the national forecaster would be able to come out with a more specific predictions.

The prediction on onset of the monsoon will be made in the third week of May. Generally, the southwest monsoon hits India mainland in first week of June when Kerala experiences first spell of rains of the season.

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