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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

India curve not yet linear as claimed: Researchers -GS Mudur

-The Telegraph

Health authorities detected 2,411 new cases on Saturday, the first overnight spike, raising the number of Covid-19 patients to 37,776

India’s coronavirus epidemic remains on an exponential growth curve and not a linear curve as government officials had suggested last week, researchers and public health experts tracking the country’s rising Covid-19 counts said on Saturday.

Health authorities detected 2,411 new cases on Saturday, the first overnight spike greater than 2,000, raising the number of Covid-19 patients to 37,776. But the researchers said the epidemic curve, while still exponential, had shifted towards slower growth.

The rising counts through April now point to an effective reproduction number R of 1.27, significantly lower than the basic reproduction number, R0, of 1.83 estimated through counts in March. R is a term that indicates how many people are expected to become infected from one infected person.

An R of 1.27 implies that 100 infected people would over their infectious period infect 127 others.

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