Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&amp;rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &amp;ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&amp;rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &amp;mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Calculations of an economy&amp;rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &amp;mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more.&lt;/p&gt;
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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more.&lt;/p&gt;
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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

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                <strong>Indian economy is heading for a K-shaped recovery and it won’t be a pretty sight -TN Ninan</strong></h1>
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                <p style="text-align:justify">-ThePrint.in</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p><p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>               </font>
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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &amp;lsquo;winners and losers&amp;rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&amp;rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &amp;ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&amp;rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &amp;mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Calculations of an economy&amp;rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &amp;mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.&lt;/p&gt;

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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy..."/>
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                <strong>Indian economy is heading for a K-shaped recovery and it won’t be a pretty sight -TN Ninan</strong></h1>
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                <p style="text-align:justify">-ThePrint.in</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p><p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>               </font>
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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &amp;lsquo;winners and losers&amp;rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&amp;rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &amp;ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&amp;rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &amp;mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Calculations of an economy&amp;rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &amp;mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.&lt;/p&gt;

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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &amp;lsquo;winners and losers&amp;rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &amp;lsquo;winners and losers&amp;rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&amp;rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&amp;rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &amp;ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&amp;rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &amp;mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p style=&quot;text-align:justify&quot;&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A&quot;&gt;click here&lt;/a&gt; to read more.&lt;/p&gt;
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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &amp;lsquo;winners and losers&amp;rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&amp;rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy...&#039;
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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy..."/>
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                <strong>Indian economy is heading for a K-shaped recovery and it won’t be a pretty sight -TN Ninan</strong></h1>
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                <p style="text-align:justify">-ThePrint.in</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p><p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>               </font>
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<p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>
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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy...',
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<p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p>

<p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>
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$metaTitle = 'LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Indian economy is heading for a K-shaped recovery and it won’t be a pretty sight -TN Ninan'
$metaKeywords = 'Potential Growth,Incremental Capital Output Ratio,ICOR,Investment Rate,Nativism,Tribalism,Competition Commission of India,Anti-Trust Laws,Monopoly,Oligopoly'
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K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.

Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy...'
$disp = '<p style="text-align:justify">-ThePrint.in</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between &lsquo;winners and losers&rsquo;. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs.</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world&rsquo;s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India&rsquo;s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the &ldquo;twin-balance sheet crisis&rdquo; confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential &mdash; once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not!</p><p style="text-align:justify">Calculations of an economy&rsquo;s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India&rsquo;s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 &mdash; translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-economy-is-heading-for-a-k-shaped-recovery-and-it-wont-be-a-pretty-sight/496170/?fbclid=IwAR3qL4RFI5Vw0zzB07Q__bkVmL5CKLLYUCnjlOLMhoKgTyEgrlL2vFYto-A">click here</a> to read more.</p>'
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Indian economy is heading for a K-shaped recovery and it won’t be a pretty sight -TN Ninan

-ThePrint.in K-shaped recovery means the growing gap between ‘winners and losers’. An example in India is the stock market being healthy while millions have lost their jobs. Amidst the flood of commentary that followed the finding that the world’s fastest-growing large economy had become its fastest-shrinking one, an observation that stood out was that India’s growth potential had dropped from 6 per cent to 5 per cent. Now, it has been obvious for some time that India will emerge from the Covid-19 recession with a record fiscal deficit, record public debt (both in relation to GDP), a fresh lease of life for the “twin-balance sheet crisis” confronting banks and companies, complex monetary challenges, and consequently reduced growth potential — once reckoned at 7-plus per cent. But 5 per cent? Surely not! Calculations of an economy’s growth potential can be simplistic journalism (investment rate divided by the ICOR, or incremental capital-output ratio) or complex maths with many assumptions. It is also intrinsic to a data-poor emerging economy that such estimates of growth potential comprise soft, not hard, numbers. Still, no one until now had said that India’s growth potential would be lower than the growth rates achieved in the 1980s and 1990s (between 5.5 per cent and 6 per cent). If so, those rosy BRICS scenarios would have to be radically re-cast. Per capita income in inflation-adjusted rupees in 2022-23 is likely to be no bigger than in 2019-20 — translating into three lost years. Consider what that means: Surplus capacity in all directions, and a collapse of new investment. Please click here to read more.