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Indian hybrid seeds makers see a fifth of cotton seed returns -Ashish Kulshrestha
-The Economic Times

HYDERABAD: Delayed and inadequate monsoon across several cotton growing Indian states has dented sowing and hit hybrid seeds sales hard and producers have seen nearly a fifth of seed returns from their distributors, double that of last year.

Normal returns from seed dealers hover at around 10% a year, adding to the woes of Indian hybrid seed firms that are currently in a prolonged wrangle with the global seed giant Monsanto on royalties. Hybrid seed manufacturers could see 300-400 basis points fall in profitability this time, say analysts.

India, which did not see much fall in cotton cultivation over the last three years despite consecutive draughts, could see over acreage fall by a sixth this year owing to delayed monsoon, coupled with fall in cotton prices, analysts said.

Seed manufacturers say delayed arrival of rains in key cotton producing regions has forced farmers to shift to other crops like pulses and corn, resulting in higher return of unsold cotton seeds.

"The industry is expecting the sales returns to be on the higher side this year, approximately around 20% as against 10% in 2015, largely on account of delayed arrival of monsoon in key regions and fear in the mind of farmers who suffered excessively from pest attacks," said MG Shembeker, vice-president of the National Seed Association of India and Managing Director of Nagpur-based Ankur Seeds.

Hybrid seeds, channelled through the distributors, are returned to the manufacturers who stock it for the next season. Seed producers claim that the BT cotton seeds have a higher shelf life and can be used even after a year.

"Stocking of seeds also entails additional expenditure for us. However, it would be too early to conclude that it'll impact our businesses and we should wait for the sowing season to get over," said Niranjan Kumar of Seedsmen Association and chief executive officer of Garc Seeds.

Sabyasachi Majumdar, Senior Vice-President at rating agency ICRA, says that "while the cotton acreage was largely intact in the last three years at about 12-12.5 million hectares despite consecutive draughts, it is likely to fall by about 10-15% this year by the end of sowing season on account of delayed monsoon and fall in cotton prices, resulting in higher sales returns."

The y-o-y fall in cotton acreage was about 50% as of June 2016 as per the figures published by the ministry of agriculture. In Punjab and Haryana, cotton acreage fell by 27% to 7.56 lakh hectares as against 10.3 lakh hectares last season due to the fear of whitefly pest attack. However, ICRA's Majumdar said some lost ground could be covered in the remaining sowing period.

Indian hybrid seed firms are already burdened with unsold inventories over the past two years and writing off the stock would impact their profitability, say analysts. "As against 18-20% EBIDTA (earnings before interest, depreciation, taxation and amortisation) till last year, the earnings are likely to fall by 3-4% this fiscal," said Majumdar.

The Indian seeds industry, which is currently valued at $3.2 billion (approximately Rs 19,200 crore), has grown at a compounded annual growth rate of 8.4% in volume terms over FY09 to FY15 to reach 3.5 million tonnes (consumption), said a 2015 report by ICRA India.

At present, the Indian seed industry is the sixth largest globally in value terms, accounting for about 4.5% of global industry preceded by US (27%), China (22%), France (6%), Brazil (6%) and Canada (4.8%).