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Is government manipulating agriculture data? -Jitendra

-Down to Earth

Government’s policy decisions and ground reports are in conflict with official data on sowing, production and agriculture insurance

The Centre’s claim of 94 million metric tonnes (MT) (2015-16) of wheat production, good sowing acreage and success of agriculture insurance scheme is not in sync with reality as government’s own data do not match agriculture ministry’s claims.  

The data related to increased acreage, bumper production and success of agriculture insurance scheme has been raising several questions instead of answering queries.

Sudden demonetisation has punctured the enthusiasm of farmers and traders of agriculture sector that was riding high in the wake of normal monsoon. After two years of continuous drought, normal monsoon has provided a chance to revive soil moisture and increase production. The chance is now slipping out.

The agriculture ministry is leaving no stone unturned for churning out positive headlines that seem to say, “All is well”. After demonetisation, the ministry started releasing weekly press releases stating that demonetisation has had no impact on sowing. However, the government decided to waive off import duty on wheat to encourage cheap import, especially from Australia and Ukraine. The wheat price has risen up by 30 per cent in the last four months.

Sowing data

Till December 23, 2016, there has been two per cent rise in sowing of wheat than normal average. Coverage of about 27.86 million ha has been reported for wheat as compared to a normal of 27.46 million ha. This is seven per cent higher (about two million ha) than 2015-16. Interestingly, due to demonetisation, wheat sowing area in early December was reported 12 per cent below normal. Within two weeks, it surpassed the normal average by two per cent.

What also puts a question mark on government’s claim that everything is going in ‘right’ direction is the sudden decision of importing wheat.

Moreover, there’s hardly any mention of paddy sowing dipping by about 30 per cent in comparison to both normal season and previous drought season in 2015-16.

Down To Earth reporters visited four different states a month after demonetisation and found that sowing has either slowed down or stopped. In most of the cases, farmers have stopped sowing due to the absence of cash.

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