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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

It'll get hotter and wetter in India by Nitin Sethi

Don't let the cold winter this year blindside you to a contrary phenomenon that is creeping up upon us. Temperatures in India are set to get higher—higher than what the country has recorded in the past 130 years. The monsoon too is going to change; it will rain as much, perhaps higher, but in short, intense bursts, heightening the risk of floods and crop failure.

These are some of the grim findings of prominent meteorologists at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, a government-funded research centre at Pune. IITM scientists K Krishna Kumar, S K Patwardhan and B N Goswami, along with scientists from France, USA and Thailand, have concluded that higher temperatures have a strong probability of coming true.

Day temperatures will be higher and there will be less respite from the heat at night, says their research paper. The band of high-temperature days will get longer than now. In turn, these changes could result in higher heat-wave deaths, apart from impacting crops.

The average annual temperatures across the country could rise by 2 degree celsius by the middle of this century and by 3.5 degree celsius by its end, the scientists have said on the basis of several scientific and mathematical formulas that were used in tandem to predict the future. One such model suggested that temperatures could rise by as much as 6 degree celsius by the end of the century.

If green-house gas emissions are not reduced or controlled, the average daily maximum temperatures before the onset of monsoons would routinely stay above 45 degree celsius. And rains across the country could increase by 8-10% by the end of the century and come down with higher intensity, increasing the risk of floods and bad crops.

According to the scientists, rain in the May-October period could rise by 20%. This, they say, means the monsoon period could get extended.

The impact of these changes in the climate could be disastrous unless government pushes adaptation policies. Even adapting, such as introducing heat-resistant seeds, would not be able to completely counter the impact of the changes, the scientists warn.

The scientists found that in a pocket near Delhi—a good sample area for the Indo-Gangetic plain—the daily minimum temperatures could rise by as much as 5 degree celsius. Some studies show that a one-degree change can hit crop yields by 10%.

The authors of the research suggest that even if they were to take a conservative view, a 20% reduction in crop yields due to such increases in temperatures would be sufficient to badly hit the economy. "Such a situation of decreasing yields coupled with increasing population could be a major socio-economic issue," they warn.

Their conclusion is dire: "The changes are likely to have a large impact on agriculture and public health and a pervasive negative effect throughout the entire economy, unless, the government acts."