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It's a deal by and for the rich polluters by Sunita Narain

Let's assess the outcome of Cancun in terms of what the world has achieved to avert climate change. We know the threat of a changing climate is real, we in India are most vulnerable and the world needs drastic emission reduction. Just think: to keep the world below 2 degrees Celsius temperature increase, global emissions must drop to 44 billion tonnes of CO2e (all greenhouse gases) by 2020. The world is already emitting 48 billion tonnes of CO2e. This literally means it has run out of time and space to pollute.

The first agenda before Cancun was to decide on how much the industrialized countries – primarily responsible for this global problem – would cut. The target discussed at the Bali conference in 2007 was a reduction of 40% over 1990 levels by 2020. So, tough decisions were needed at Cancun.

The Cancun deal has been struck by letting these countries off the hook. There are no targets. Instead, it has been agreed that now these countries will take action based on what they "pledge" to do. Take the US. If the target was being set (as was decided in Bali) on the basis of its contribution to the stock of gases already in the atmosphere, then it would have to reduce 40% below 1990 levels by 2020. Now, US has "pledged" that it will reduce zero percentage points in the same period. Cancun legitimizes its right to pollute. It is no wonder that it worked hard to stitch the deal. It is no wonder that western media and leaders are ecstatic about the breakthrough. It is their victory.

What Cancun has done is to shift the burden of the transition to the developing countries. If the combined pledges of the developed world are compared to those of the developing (including India's commitment to reduce energy intensity by 20% by 2020) then the sell-out character of the deal becomes clear. The industrialized countries, who till now were being asked to take on the burden, will end up cutting less emissions than the developing world. They cut roughly 0.8-1.8 billion tonnes, against developing country pledges of 2.8 billion tonnes.

Even worse, Cancun fails to even address the challenge of climate change. With the deal in force, the world is being put on course for a 3-4 degrees C temperature increase. We know that we are most hit by a changing climate - our monsoon, our lifeline is expected to get more extreme and more variable. With just 0.7 degrees C increase in global temperature, we are seeing signs of present and future danger. So, how can we even begin to celebrate this non-deal?
The second agenda was to decide on the mitigation actions of the developing countries and how these would be supported with funds and technology. The deal is worse than nothing on these counts. In the case of money, the old amounts have been repeated – some $30 billion by 2012 and $100 billion by 2020. But as no new or additional funds have been made available till now and there is open talk about recession in the rich world, this is not even a promise to keep. It is bribe to cajole but not to pay.

In technology, where the issue concerned access to clean technology on preferential terms, the deal avoids mention of the contentious word of IPR and pretends all is well because it has small talk about setting up global centres of technology.

The Cancun deal is by and for the rich polluters of the world. It does nothing to avert climate change and instead sets up a weak framework for action against pollution. And because it dumps the principle of equity, it negates our right to development.

But then we hate being hated in the rich man's world. It is better if we deal for them. This way we can feted as dealmakers. It is another matter that we get nothing for everything we give up.

(The author is director of Centre for Science and Environment)