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Not by wishful thinking -R Nagaraj

-The Hindu

A $5 trillion Indian economy may be attainable if domestic saving and investment are stepped up

In early June, at a NITI Aayog meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi set a clear and bold economic target — to grow India into a $5 trillion economy by 2024. It is now for ‘Team India’, as the meeting was bannered, to translate this target into a plan and policies and programmes. Historically, such goals by popularly elected leaders have voiced the aspiration of voters and energised nations to realise their potential.

How realistic?


What does the targeted $5 trillion economy mean in familiar economic terms? It is Rs.350,00,000 crore of gross domestic product (GDP) at current prices, at Rs.70 to a U.S. dollar exchange rate. India’s (provisional) GDP in 2018-19 at current prices is Rs.190,10,164 crore (or $2.7 trillion), which means the annual per capita income is Rs.1,42,719, or about Rs.11,900 per month.

The target implies an output expansion by 84% in five years, or at 13% compound annual growth rate. Assuming an annual price rise of 4%, in line with the Reserve Bank of India’s inflation target, the required growth rate in real, or inflation-adjusted, terms is 9% per year. To get a perspective, India officially grew at 7.1% per year over the last five years, but the annual growth rate never touched 9%. Hence, the target seems ambitious. Is it doable?

How Asia fared


How does the target compare with the Asian experience? China, with a historically unprecedented growth record in its best five years, during 2003-07, grew at 11.7%; South Korea, between 1983 and 1987, grew at 11%. So, Mr. Modi’s target is smaller than the best historical records and may seem realistic.

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