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Now, farmers root for BJP: CSDS survey -Ragini Verma and Elizabeth Roche
-Live Mint


About 30% of 5,350 farmer households surveyed said they would vote for the BJP

New Delhi: A third of farming households, a key electoral constituency, are likely to vote for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) in the upcoming general election, says a survey conducted by the Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) for Bharat Krishak Samaj, a farmers' association.

About 30% of 5,350 farmer households surveyed across 18
states are for the BJP and 17% for the Congress, the main constituent of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA).

In addition, 31% said they were undecided. The findings by CSDS were released on Tuesday. The survey, which covered 11,000 farmers, including 4,298 women and 2,114 young people from these households, did not mention the margin of error.

Ajay Vir Jakhar, chairman of Bharat Krishak Samaj, said "disorganized farmers were not taken seriously and their consent for policies was taken for granted. Farmers' voice got lost and both the farmers and the ruling party are suffering as a consequence. The survey gives indicators to formulate farm-related policies for the next government."

The Congress, which is the main component of the ruling United Progressive Alliance (UPA) rubbished the findings while the main opposition BJP endorsed it.

Agriculture contributed 13.91% to India's Gross Domestic Product in 2013-14 according to advance estimates provided by the ministry of statistics.

The sector grew 4.6% in the same period and employs 49% of the country's population.

Interestingly, only 16% of the households believe the BJP cares about farmers, not very different from the 13% that believe the Congress does.

But worryingly for the Congress, which, as the dominant party in the UPA, has focused on entitlements over the past decade, many farmers have not heard of its farmer welfare programmes.

And far fewer have benefited from them. For instance, only 53% have heard of the loan waiver scheme in which some Rs.70,000 crore of agricultural loans was written off, and only 10% benefited from it.

Only 30% have heard of the National Agriculture Insurance Scheme and only 7% have benefited from it.

Indeed, in half the states covered by the survey, a majority of farmers (over 51%) believed their condition was "bad".

One expert said the numbers reflect the poor job UPA has done in communicating its welfare projects to relevant beneficiaries.

According to Himanshu, assistant professor at Jawaharlal Nehru University and visiting fellow at the Centre de Sciences Humaines, New Delhi, "agriculture is a state subject and the central government influences it little.

But the Congress-led government has not communicated its programmes very effectively to the people and the opposition seems to be setting the agenda and taking advantage of it".

The survey listed price rise, unemployment and irrigation as issues likely to be of most concern to farmers.
Of the young people surveyed, 60% said they would leave if they found a job in the city. Indeed, a majority of the farmers too wanted their children to move to the cities to benefit from better education, facilities and job prospects.

Agriculture isn't a viable proposition in India and while "education does not matter much for agriculture, it will help people to move out of farming", Himanshu said.
Although the conditions of farmers have improved in the past decade, many are considering opting out of their traditional employment "not because of low incomes but because of the riskiness and vulnerability of being a farmer", said Himanshu. The unpredictability of rains and commodity prices and problems of oversupply are some of the risks.

A Congress spokesperson refused to comment on the survey but said that UPA had always been committed to farmers.

"Whether it is the Rs.72,000 crore farm loan waiver, increase in minimum support price by 300% to 1000% of crops or availability of cheap loans at 4% for agriculture credit-these are some of the pioneering steps for making agriculture a meaningfully profitable occupation," said Randeep Surjewala, the spokesperson.
According to the survey, most farmers weren't aware of the minimum support price at which the government buys from farmers.

"Most respondents (50%) felt that only rich and big farmers have benefited by farm-related government schemes and policies," said the report.

The BJP was buoyed by the results.

"Election campaigning has not even started and 30% of farmers want to vote for Narendra Modi. This percentage will increase in the coming days and more farmers will vote for BJP," Om Prakash Dhankar, chief of the BJP's farmers' wing, said.

Indian farmers perceive natural calamities as one of the biggest problems followed by low productivity. A majority (58%) think both state and central governments are responsible for their problems. Only 4% are worried about corruption.

Nearly 75% of Indian farmers surveyed have a bank account or a post office account. However, the penetration of the Aadhaar card-containing a unique identification number issued by the government-among farmers is much less at 50%.

"Rural India is going through a major structural change and the findings of this survey are reflective of that," Himanshu said.

Anuja and Gyan Varma contributed to this story.