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Number theory: Knots in India-China trade data -Surendar Singh and Ram Singh

-The Hindu Business Line

Under-invoicing of imports is just one part of the story. Data asymmetries have many other factors.

The trade data mismatch of India and China has attracted wide coverage from both electronic and print media. This mismatch is attributed to ‘under-invoicing’ by Indian importers for the imports originating from China.

There is mismatch of $12 billion with China reporting its exports to India over $103 billion. Indian agencies, on the contrary, are reporting their Chinese imports at $92 billion. This reflects significant asymmetries in international trade statistics, and they can occur for a variety of reasons. This needs understanding of not only the conceptual discrepancies across measurement standards but also of established norms of data collection, tabulation, curation and presentation, which may also lead to potential discrepancies in trade data.

Additionally, one needs to understand trading practices, logistics channels and cross-country trading patterns due to financial, operational and logistical ease of a particular country.

These discrepancies in international trade statistics can result in ill-informed policy decisions. Under-invoicing, as reported, can be only one reason among many others for trade data anomalies.

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