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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Queues of pain for tiny gain on black money? -Subodh Varma

-The Times of India

NEW DELHI: The aam aadmi putting up with the widespread distress and economic loss caused by declaring invalid all Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes sees a positive side to the move — it will unearth and stamp out black money. This is one of the stated objectives in the government's notification of November. There is also the target of finishing off fake currency, which harms the economy and is used by terrorists.

With 12 cash-starved days gone, questions are emerging on whether these objectives will be met. And if not, is all this pain for nothing?

Although there are no exact figures, estimates for black money range from 20-66% of the GDP. That is, anywhere between Rs 27 lakh crore and Rs 90 lakh crore.

So, is all this going to be unearthed by the present demonetisation?

No, it can't — because not all of this is in cash. According to various past government reports, black money exists in the form of different kinds of assets like benami properties, bullion, shares etc. Then there is one component stashed away in foreign tax havens. Only a fraction of the total black money is hoarded as cash.

There are no estimates for what share of black money exists as illegal cash hoards, says R Ramakumar, dean at Mumbai's Tata Institute of Social Sciences. "Another part of the illegal earnings is seamlessly transferred as capital invested in productive activities," he explained.

A committee on 'Measures to Tackle Black Money in India and Abroad', set up by the finance ministry in 2012 and headed by the chairman of Central Board of Direct Taxes (CBDT) had said that "demonetisation may not be a solution for tackling black money in the economy, which is largely held in the form of benami properties, bullion and jewellery etc."

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