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Notice (8): Undefined variable: urlPrefix [APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8]latest-news-updates/rain-hope-with-rider-16019.html"/> LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Rain hope with rider | Im4change.org
Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Rain hope with rider
-The Telegraph

Weather scientists today predicted two weeks of active monsoon coming up but cautioned that without steady excess rainfall over the next eight weeks, the prospects of a normal monsoon this year will recede.

Atmospheric conditions now appear favourable for two weeks of good rainfall across peninsular, central and northern India, but the activity is unlikely to be driven by typical monsoon season mechanisms such as depressions in the Bay of Bengal, scientists said.

India’s land area with deficient or scanty monsoon rainfall has increased to 83 per cent from 74 per cent last week, according to figures released by the India Meteorological Department today.

More than half the land area has received deficient rainfall (20 per cent to 59 per cent below average), and 30 per cent of the country has had scanty rainfall (60 per cent or more below average).

In its long-range monsoon forecast, the IMD had predicted that India would receive 96 per cent of the average rainfall during this monsoon.

“We will need excess rainfall through July and August to make up for the 31 per cent deficient rainfall in June if we are to receive normal rainfall this year,” a senior scientist said requesting anonymity.

A global atmospheric travelling pressure wave called the Madden Julian Oscillation, or MJO, has become active and is likely to bring good rainfall over large parts of India over the next two weeks, the scientist said.

“But it is unlikely to be the textbook monsoon scenario where we see depressions forming over the Bay of Bengal and bringing rain into central and northern India,” the scientist told The Telegraph.

Typically, a series of depressions over the Bay of Bengal — two or three or four spread over several weeks — have fuelled monsoon spells over the subcontinent within the four-month season.

“The sea surface conditions in the Bay of Bengal are now ready, but atmospheric conditions over the Bay aren’t conducive to the formation of a depression — not for another week,” the scientist said.

Scientists say the weather cannot be predicted with any meaningful accuracy beyond seven to 10 days, and the long-term forecasts are based on statistical correlations of the monsoon with other weather phenomena.

Under normal monsoon conditions, June receives 18 per cent of the season’s rainfall while July makes up 33 per cent, August 29 per cent and September 20 per cent.

Scientists are worried that the September rainfall this year could be adversely affected by the warming sea surface temperatures in the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon called El Nino.

“One positive sign has been the domination of easterlies over the northern plains over the past day or two,” said a senior IMD scientist.

The moisture-laden, relatively cooler easterlies as well as the predicted northward movement of a monsoon feature is likely to deliver good rain in several parts of India in the coming few days, he said.