Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 148]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 181]
Notice (8): Undefined variable: urlPrefix [APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp, line 8]latest-news-updates/resurgent-agricultural-sector-to-have-larger-share-in-economy-vinay-pandey-16682.html"/> LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Resurgent agricultural sector to have larger share in economy-Vinay Pandey | Im4change.org
Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

Resurgent agricultural sector to have larger share in economy-Vinay Pandey
-The Economic Times

A change in the national accounts, slated to take place sometime in the next two years, will show that a resurgent farm sector is now the second biggest contributor to the economy, displacing manufacturing and financial services.

The unexpected reversal is not just a statistical artefact. Instead it is an outcome of a change in the terms of trade, the price of agricultural produce compared to industrial output since 2007-08.

The current national statistics have 2004-05 as their base, which will be updated to 2010-11 or 2011-12 in the next revision. This means that GDP, the market value of goods and services produced in an economy in a year, will largely be based on price levels in these years.

If 2011-12 prices are used, agriculture will have a 17.3% share in the economy, much above the 13.9% accounted for by manufacturing and marginally ahead of financial services at 17%. After 2007-08 globally there was a reversal in the long-term trend in relative prices of farm produce and manufactured goods, resulting in some gain for the farm sector, says Ashok Gulati, chairman of Commission for agricultural cost and prices.

Over time the production of ruits and vegetables and livestock, which are priced higher, have gone up faster than foodgrains, delivering higher incomes to the farmer.

The wholesale price inflation of food articles has risen at compounded average rate of 10.7% in the six years to 2011 against 5.1% for manufactured goods, indicating a huge shift in terms of trade in favour of agriculture. Because of the relative change in prices, there has been a massive shift in incomes away from the urban areas to rural part, explaining the rise in purchase of consumer goods.

FMCG major Hindustan Unilever's revenues have risen more than 50% in the four years to 2011, and the rural market will be its mainstay going ahead. "By 2025, the Indian rural market is expected to grow more than tenfold to become a $100 billion opportunity for retail spending,"company's chairman Harish Manawani said in his address 'Rural India - An Emerging Powerhouse' to shareholders last month.

"The purchasing power is more, which is why rural demand has been growing. This part of the story has not been appreciated," says Pronab Sen, advisor inPlanning Commission, adding that focus has still been on large numbers employed in farm sector and not on poverty reduction.

The price effect has been magnified by the rapid increase in rural wages - Morgan Stanley says they have risen at the rate of about 20% year-on-year for the last three years.

The government's employment guarantee scheme, the Mahatma Gandhi Rural Employment Guarantee Act, has set the floor of rural wages, apart from ensuring round the year employment.

Rough calculations show that rural poverty, according to 2011-12 census data on household expenditure, dropped to 26% from 41% in 2004-05, as rural incomes rose at a fast pace thanks to a combination of a rise in wages, government transfers and higher farm produce prices.

However, experts say this kind of resurgence based on higher prices-including some set by the government-does not capture the full picture. Terms of trade may has shifted relative to manufacturing, but the farmer may not be benefiting to the extent believed because his input costs have also risen sharply, leaving him with only a marginally higher net gain.