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Rich countries have paltry climate targets: UN analysis-Nitin Sethi
-The Hindu


The developed countries have committed to cut their greenhouse gas emission levels by a paltry 3% between 201 and 2020, shows new data analysis by the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This is less than a third of the emission reduction the rich countries have achieved between 1990 and 2011.

The UNFCCC secretariat carried out a technical review of the commitments rich countries have made so far to reduce their emissions between now and 2020. The review shows that the countries have collectively committed to a cut of only 13-19% by 1990 levels. This falls far short of the 25-40% emission reduction expected of developed countries to keep temperatures from rising more than 2 degree above pre-industrial era - a tipping point that leads to dangerous climate change consequences.

The likelihood remains that the developed countries would only be achieving the lower limit. They have predicated taking the higher range of emission cuts on countries from the developing world also taking targets - the chances of which are near zero.

The UNFCCC analysis also shows that the EU - which has always projected itself as a leader on the issue has set such a low target for 2020 that it has already almost achieved it. It had committed that it would bring its emissions down by 20% below 1990 levels. But by 2011 it had already achieved an 18% reduction from the 1990 base year.

The US, the country with the highest accumulated emissions and the highest per capita emissions in the world increased its emissions by 8% between 1990-2011 as it refused to sign on to the Kyoto Protocol. Now its committed to bringing down its emissions by a mere 5% from the 1990 levels by 2020.

The analysis by the secretariat also warns that it is difficult to figure how much of these emission reduction actions would be taken by developed world in the countries as many have not explained or clarified their dependence on offsets - buying credits for work done to cut emissions in developing world.

The on-going negotiations at the UNFCCC have been running through two tracks of the talks. One of these is to push the countries to take higher emission reductions between now and 2020 in order to avoid the atmosphere accumulating higher-levels of emissions which would then lock the world to a greater inevitable level of climate change consequences. The second track of the talks is to deliver a new global deal by 2015 which would put in place the formula for all to cut emissions starting 2020.

While the US has made it clear that it would not up its target to cut carbon dioxide emissions in the pre-2020 period the EU has hinged it countries such as China and India also taking on commitments right away.

With the carbon space being limited and almost two-third occupied by the developed world, the low commitments of the rich world at present promise to push the developing world to take a higher level of reductions post 2020.