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Rising temperatures, Excessive rainfall, heat extremes no longer distant risks: World Bank -Urmi A Goswami
-The Economic Times


NEW DELHI: Rising temperatures on account of checked climate change would lead longer warm spells, heat extremes by as much as one-fifth of South Asia's land mass, and a higher incidence of excess rainfall. These are no longer distant risks according to the World Bank.

By 2040, unprecedented heat could affect more than 5% of South Asia's land mass. And if efforts to counter rising temperatures are not taken, then a 4 degrees rise in average global temperature would be a reality by 2080. Resulting in warm spells for 150 to 200 days, resulting in extreme heat in more than 70% of the land mass comprising South Asia, increased length of dry spells and a 75% increase in the number of extreme wet days. The rising global temperature on account of unchecked climate change would make India's monsoon highly unpredictable, according to "Turn Down the heat: Climate Extremes, Regional Impacts and the Case for Resilience", a science based study by Potsdam Institute and Climate Analytics, commissioned by the World Bank.

Science has consistently warned that governments need to do more to limit climate change and the accompanying rise in global temperatures. Developing countries have argued that they cannot sacrifice development and poverty eradication and that industrialized countries need to do more to limit climate change. The World Bank takes this message forward arguing that ambitions for a better life cannot be denied but all countries need to be smarter about resource use if the goal of addressing extreme poverty is not to be endangered.

"The scientists tell us that if the world warms by 2 degrees celsius - warming which may be reached in 20 to 30 years - that will cause widespread food shortages, unprecedented heat-waves, and more intense cyclones. In the near-term, climate change, which is already unfolding, could batter the slums even more and greatly harm the lives and the hopes of individuals and families who have had little hand in raising the Earth's temperature," World Bank Group President Jim Yong Kim said in the foreword to the study.

The rising temperatures would pose significant risk to agriculture, water resources, and health, contributing to a slowing in the reduction of poverty. The study finds that coastal cities like Kolkata and Mumbai are "potential impact hotspots" threatened by extreme river floods, more intense tropical cyclones, rising sea levels, which would rise by 30cm in the 2040s to 105 cm in the 2080s, and very high temperatures. Droughts will especially affect north-western India. Water security will be at threat in Western Ghats and North-East India.

"The future that scientists have envisioned in this report reinforces the fact that climate change hits the poor the hardest and that it could roll back decades of development gains in India. In order to minimize the impacts of a changing climate, we need to ensure that our cities become climate resilient, that we develop climate-smart agriculture practices, and find innovative ways to improve both energy efficiency and the performance of renewable energies," releasing the study, World Bank Country Director for India Onno Ruhl said.

The study, which was released on Wednesday, makes it clear that if governments don't take proper action to counter climate change, then global temperature averages would rise by 2 degrees within the next three decades and by 4 degrees by 2080.