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Second green revolution is the need of the hour by Kunal Bose
The government will certainly not indulge in self congratulation for agriculture recording a growth of 5.4 per cent to 232.07 million tonnes in 2010-11 as this is happening on a low production base of 218.11 million tonnes last year when the country experienced the worst south-west monsoon since 1972. In fact, the major concern of the government is farm sector’s niggardly growth of 2.8 per cent in the first four years of the current plan.

That the country will miss the four per cent annual growth for the sector during the eleventh plan by a long margin is not in doubt. There is no way growth could be raised to 8.5 per cent next year to compensate for performance deficit in the earlier years. The crisis in agriculture in the form of virtual stagnation in productivity and difficulty in commissioning new unfarmed land finds expression in a table in the Economic Survey.

The table on compound annual growth rate basis shows that in 10 years to 2009-10, the area under rice shrank 0.03 per cent and production and productivity of the cereal grew 1.59 per cent and 1.61 per cent, respectively. As for wheat, the area gain was 1.21 per cent, while progress in production and productivity was 1.89 per cent and 0.68 per cent, respectively. Productivity gains have plateaued raising concerns about food security. All this goes to show that the country now urgently needs a follow up green revolution to the one of the 1960s which led to major breakthroughs in wheat and rice production. The next green revolution has to happen to chase the twin goals of food security and nutritional diet. Without the second revolution, which can be postponed at the nation’s peril, the supply side’s response to growing demand for food will be weak leading to disturbing price spikes.

Agriculture’s critical limiting factors for India as for many other countries are inelastic supply of arable land and declining water tables – in some parts of Punjab where the first green revolution was heralded the table is down from a couple of metres below the surface to virtually unfathomable depths. The sector also has to contend with erosion of top soil and ill effects of climate change. Better irrigation system and its wider coverage, more efficient and balanced use of fertilisers, making sure subsidies reach the target groups and elimination of crop wastage will no doubt help. But what could usher in the next revolution are breakthroughs in technology through public research to be made possible mainly by liberal government funding.

Finance minister Pranab Mukherjee says agriculture is “central to our growth strategy.” But what he has proposed in the Budget for the sector does not inspire confidence in M S Swaminathan that the country is being readied for the second green revolution. He is distraught by the public policy which does not provide for holding together the farm and non-farm sectors in rural India and inadequate allocation for agriculture. One may not share his scepticism about the future of Indian agriculture, but there is no scope for disagreement about his four conditions for launching another green revolution.

Agriculture certainly cannot be taken to the next stage of development without new technology, better support services, improved marketing of agro products and very importantly making farmers enthused about his work. Like India many other countries are talking about green revolution. The universal challenge is to see that global food production doubles by 2050 when world population is projected to rise to 9.5 billion from the present 6.9 billion. A hard but not insurmountable task in the context, as the Economist points out, of the yields of wheat and rice, the two most important food crops rising for the first time since the 1960s more slowly than global population. It’s scary to find one billion people in the world are pathetically undernourished. The per hectare yield of rice in India is stagnating at around 2,150 kg and that for wheat at about 2,830 kg. Before the green revolution, the yield was 1,013 kg for rice and 851 kg for wheat. The revolution that New Delhi has in mind will have a much wider sweep than the first to also include pulses and oilseeds, for which we are import dependent, and fruits and vegetables.

For boosting productivity of farm items, the reliance has to be on biotechnology. Our farmers need smart seeds which will make crops withstand diseases and weeds and not allow them to wilt easily in difficult weather condition. How can we have healthy productivity growth when four-fifths of farmers use farm-saved seeds leading to low seed replacement rate. The government has got to go beyond talking and instead create condition for the revolution to start. Food inflation is unnerving for any government anywhere. This must have reminded our policymakers that hunger could ignite another kind of revolution.