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Shillong to Thoothukudi, what data says about increasing protests in India -Pradeep Chhibber, Harsh Shah and Rahul Verma

-Hindustan Times

Citizens are finding innovative ways to protest and are often doing so without the help of political parties, who often arrive ‘late to the party’.

Though the recent violence in Shillong began over a minor scuffle and spread through a fabricated story on WhatsApp, it took almost a week to de-escalate tensions between members of the Sikh community, long-time settlers in the Punjabi Lane area of the city, and Khasis, a dominant tribal community of Meghalaya.

Similarly, a reckless police action in Thoothukudi (Tamil Nadu) last month turned a peaceful protest into a violent tragedy. These incidents are just the latest in a spate of large-scale protests in India, such as the farmers in Maharashtra marching to Mumbai to draw attention to the agrarian crisis and the nationwide protests in April in reaction to the Kathua and Unnao rape cases.

Political commentators have argued that there has been a substantial increase in the number of protests and clashes in the country, that the spike coincides with elections and that it is linked to particular parties assuming power in the states. The increase in the incidence of protests also signals dissatisfaction with the incumbents — either with the Narendra Modi-led BJP government in the Centre or the ruling parties in the states.

We tested these hypotheses using a comprehensive dataset by ACLED (Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project) that has documented incidents of political violence and protests across the country starting January 2016. The ACLED (www.acleddata.com to access this data) tracks information from English language newspapers and may not be exhaustive. However, the trend in the number of protests and violent incidents is comparable with other data sources such as Bureau of Police Research and Development (BPRD) and National Crime Record Bureau (NCRB).

The data presented in chart 1 and 2 helps in making a few points. First, there has been some increase in the number of protests and clashes across India in the last couple of years. Second, more than a third of protests occurred in capitals cities (this includes the National Capital Territory of Delhi). Protestors justifiably expect that holding protests in capitals garners more attention and hence greater media coverage. Third, greater media attention creates an impression that the protests are widespread and are happening across the country all the time.

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