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Sonia effect? Plan panel raises BPL bar by Nitin Sethi & Mahendra Kumar Singh

The uncertainty over the number of people to benefit from the proposed food security law has abated. With Sonia Gandhi in her new role as National Advisory Council chairperson keeping a vigil, the Planning Commission on Saturday dropped its reluctance to accept Tendulkar committee's report putting the size of the below poverty line (BPL) population at 37.2%.

The Planning Commission had so far been keen on going with its own estimate that that pegged the BPL population numbers at 27.5%.

The switch to the new benchmark boosts the number of potential beneficiaries of the food security by 1.1 crore -- from 6.3 crore to 7.4 crore.

Planning Commission's veering round to embrace an estimate it was not comfortable about comes against the backdrop of the return of Sonia Gandhi-helmed NAC. The revival of the body, billed by many to be the Planning Commission for the social sector, came against the backdrop of indications of Congress leadership's annoyance with the lethargic implementation of the "aam aadmi" agenda of the Congress party.

It was Sonia's letter to the government which led the group of ministers to revist the draft legislation that it had cleared for the approval of the Union Cabinet.

The Plan panel, which was deeply divided over the issue, rejected the proposal to have two separate poverty figures -- one for food security and another for other social security schemes.

The revised numbers will mean the cost of the implementation of the proposed food security law going up, more so if Sonia Gandhi decides to heed the civil society activists who want the entitlement of foodgrain per family from the proposed 25 kgs per family to 35 kgs.

The current projected cost, computed on the basis of the proposal to provide 25 kgs to every BPL family at Rs 3, works out to Rs 28,860 crore. It will touch Rs 40,400 crore if the government raises the entitlement to 35 kgs per family.

Even in the case of the second scenario, the burden on the exchequer would be lower than the existing Rs 56,000 crore annual food subsidy, as under the PDS system the Centre also provides some subsidised grains to those above the poverty line. The last draft of the Act has suggested that the subsidy to APL beneficeries would be done away with under the new law.

The decision puts the ball back in EGoM's court which is redrafting the proposed bill at the moment. However, sources said there is all likelihood that new draft will be left relatively open-ended for the NAC to take the final call on the legislation.

At the meeting of members of the Commission, sources informed, Plan panel member Saumitra Choudhury criticised the Tendulkar report arguing that the committee used urban poverty criteria to arrive at rural poverty figuers.

Other members, however, opposed the idea of having two sets of poverty figures, leading the deputy chairman, Montek Singh Ahluwalia, to accept the 37.2% figure of Tendulkar report in toto.

When the crucial meeting was on, members from Right to Food Campaign reached the Yojana Bhawan demanding acceptance of the Tendulkar report, in what was an indication of the pressure that the civil society may bring to bear upon the government on the proposed legislation.

Now the food ministry would have to take a tough call on how to address the issues raised by the state governments of the existing BPL card-holders and the concerns raised by the civil society activists over independent monitoring of the scheme.

The ministerial panel would also have to deal with the `vulnerable' groups. While the Congress manifesto had suggested special provisions for 'vulnerable' groups such as the urban homeless, the bill instead took away even the existing provisions of public distribution system for the poorest of poor under the Antyodaya Anna Yojana.

Now the Tendulkar ceiling would have to be reconciled with the state level poverty surveys which are expected to include vulnerable groups as a special category.