Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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</span></span></code></pre><pre id="cakeErr67f22b78389e3-context" class="cake-context" style="display: none;">$viewFile = &#039;/home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp&#039;
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;The Hindu, 27 July, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-monsoon-forecast-model-may-be-in-place-next-year/article8906506.ece?w=alauto&#039;,
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
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&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
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he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
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predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
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&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;The Hindu, 27 July, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-monsoon-forecast-model-may-be-in-place-next-year/article8906506.ece?w=alauto&#039;,
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
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Cake\View\View::render() - CORE/src/View/View.php, line 885
Cake\Controller\Controller::render() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 791
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 126
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,..."/>
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                <strong>Supercomputer to forecast monsoon with dynamical model -Jacob Koshy</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br /><br />TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.<br /><br />Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br /><br />While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br /><br />The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br /><br /><em>Prediction failures<br /></em><br />Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br /><br />Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br /><br />While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. <br /></div>               </font>
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;The Hindu, 27 July, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-monsoon-forecast-model-may-be-in-place-next-year/article8906506.ece?w=alauto&#039;,
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
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predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
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&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;The Hindu, 27 July, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-monsoon-forecast-model-may-be-in-place-next-year/article8906506.ece?w=alauto&#039;,
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,..."/>
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                <strong>Supercomputer to forecast monsoon with dynamical model -Jacob Koshy</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br /><br />TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.<br /><br />Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br /><br />While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br /><br />The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br /><br /><em>Prediction failures<br /></em><br />Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br /><br />Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br /><br />While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. <br /></div>               </font>
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. &lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
		&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;The Hindu, 27 July, 2016, http://www.thehindu.com/news/national/new-monsoon-forecast-model-may-be-in-place-next-year/article8906506.ece?w=alauto&#039;,
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;,
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-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. &lt;br /&gt;
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
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$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-The Hindu&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;New Delhi: &lt;/em&gt;Next year, India&amp;rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &amp;ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&amp;rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &amp;ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&amp;rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &amp;ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&amp;rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&amp;rsquo;s best.&amp;rdquo;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;Prediction failures&lt;br /&gt;&lt;/em&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &amp;mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &amp;mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &amp;ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&amp;rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.&lt;br /&gt;&lt;br /&gt;While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&amp;rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&amp;rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. &lt;br /&gt;&lt;/div&gt;&#039;
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,..."/>
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                <strong>Supercomputer to forecast monsoon with dynamical model -Jacob Koshy</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br /><br />TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.<br /><br />Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br /><br />While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br /><br />The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br /><br /><em>Prediction failures<br /></em><br />Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br /><br />Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br /><br />While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. <br /></div>               </font>
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-The Hindu<br />
<br />
<em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br />
<br />
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.<br />
<br />
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br />
<br />
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br />
<br />
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br />
<br />
<em>Prediction failures<br />
</em><br />
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br />
<br />
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br />
<br />
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. <br />
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-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...',
	'disp' => '<div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br /><br />TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.<br /><br />Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br /><br />While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br /><br />The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br /><br /><em>Prediction failures<br /></em><br />Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br /><br />Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br /><br />While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. <br /></div>',
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-The Hindu<br />
<br />
<em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br />
<br />
The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational 
purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the 
weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular 
timeframes.<br />
<br />
Though this method is normally effective in 
forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual 
monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br />
<br />
While such 
models have been used for research purposes for long, the India 
Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its 
operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though 
discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of 
an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, a
division of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. 
Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next 
year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to use
the dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the 
other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br />
<br />
The IMD
relies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an 
average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as 
sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level 
pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data 
linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br />
<br />
<em>Prediction failures<br />
</em><br />
This
traditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon 
failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by 
meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br />
<br />
Though the 
dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so 
far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, 
Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve 
and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;
he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the 
ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br />
<br />
While 
the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along 
with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical 
model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon 
predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad 
geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also be
more easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather 
conditions. <br />
</div>',
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$articleid = (int) 31761
$metaTitle = 'LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Supercomputer to forecast monsoon with dynamical model -Jacob Koshy'
$metaKeywords = 'India Meteorological Department (IMD),monsoon,Monsoon forecast,Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES),Supercomputer'
$metaDesc = '
-The Hindu

New Delhi: Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.

The
Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said 
the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical 
Meteorology,...'
$disp = '<div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>New Delhi: </em>Next year, India&rsquo;s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model.<br /><br />TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was &ldquo;ready for operational purposes next year.&rdquo; A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes.<br /><br />Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult.<br /><br />While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. &ldquo;We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,&rdquo; Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, &ldquo;We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn&rsquo;t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what&rsquo;s best.&rdquo;<br /><br />The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon.<br /><br /><em>Prediction failures<br /></em><br />Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures &mdash; in 2002 and 2004 for instance &mdash; leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system.<br /><br />Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. &ldquo;No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,&rdquo;he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015.<br /><br />While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model&rsquo;s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India&rsquo;s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions. <br /></div>'
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Supercomputer to forecast monsoon with dynamical model -Jacob Koshy

-The Hindu New Delhi: Next year, India’s annual summer monsoon forecast may be made by a supercomputer running a dynamical model. TheSecretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences (MoES), Madhavan Rajeevan, said the dynamical model, being tested at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, (IITM) Pune for a decade was “ready for operational purposes next year.” A dynamical monsoon model works by simulating the weather on powerful computers and extrapolating it over particular timeframes. Though this method is normally effective in forecasting weather over a few days, using it to forecast the annual monsoon over 3 or 4 months has proved difficult. While such models have been used for research purposes for long, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has never integrated them into its operational forecast. “We hope to be able to launch it next year though discussions are still ongoing,” Mr. Rajeevan said, on the sidelines of an Earth Sciences Ministry foundation day event on Wednesday. The IMD, adivision of MoES, is the official national weather forecaster. Mr. Rajeevan clarified that statistical models would still be in use next year. The IMD Director-General, L.S. Rathore, said, “We are ready to usethe dynamical model, but this doesn’t mean one is abandoned for the other. Both have their role and we must use what’s best.” The IMDrelies on an ensemble model, a statistical technique that uses an average of six meteorological values correlated to the monsoon such as sea surface temperatures in the Pacific, and North Atlantic sea level pressure. These values are derived from century-old meteorological data linked to the historical performance of the monsoon. Prediction failures Thistraditional approach in recent decades has failed to predict monsoon failures — in 2002 and 2004 for instance — leading to calls by meteorologists for a new, modern forecasting system. Though the dynamical model, called the Coupled Forecast System version 2, has so far achieved only 60 per cent accuracy in forecasting the monsoon, Rajeevan says it is good enough for now. “No doubt it needs to improve and the aim is to make that 77 per cent but we have to start somewhere,”he added. A confidence boost came when the dynamical model and the ensemble technique correctly signalled a drought in 2015. While the IMD has for some years put out the dynamical model’s forecast along with the traditional one, its plans to give prominence to the dynamical model signals a new approach. This is a precursor to giving monsoon predictions over India’s 36 sub-divisions rather than only four broad geographic regions that encompass them. A dynamical approach can also bemore easily tuned to account for rapidly changing global weather conditions.