Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

                trigger_error($message, E_USER_WARNING);

            } else {
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;Live Mint, 11 December, 2013, http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/FzpgX7uLbKcZKIh7zLTGtJ/The-focus-is-now-on-the-fiscal-deficit.html&#039;,
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


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                <strong>The focus is now on the fiscal deficit -Renu Kohli</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-Live Mint</div><p align="justify"><br /><em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em></p><p align="justify">With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.</p><p align="justify">The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.</p><p align="justify">The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.</p><p align="justify">Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?</p><p align="justify">Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.</p><p align="justify">More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.</p><p align="justify">It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.</p><p align="justify">On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.</p><p align="justify">A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.</p><p align="justify">A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.</p><p align="justify">A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.</p><p align="justify">But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.</p><p align="justify"><em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em></p>               </font>
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


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                <strong>The focus is now on the fiscal deficit -Renu Kohli</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-Live Mint</div><p align="justify"><br /><em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em></p><p align="justify">With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.</p><p align="justify">The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.</p><p align="justify">The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.</p><p align="justify">Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?</p><p align="justify">Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.</p><p align="justify">More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.</p><p align="justify">It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.</p><p align="justify">On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.</p><p align="justify">A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.</p><p align="justify">A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.</p><p align="justify">A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.</p><p align="justify">But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.</p><p align="justify"><em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em></p>               </font>
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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-Live Mint
&lt;/div&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;br /&gt;
&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
&lt;/p&gt;
&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;
&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;
&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
	&#039;credit_writer&#039; =&gt; &#039;Live Mint, 11 December, 2013, http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/FzpgX7uLbKcZKIh7zLTGtJ/The-focus-is-now-on-the-fiscal-deficit.html&#039;,
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;div align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;-Live Mint&lt;/div&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;br /&gt;&lt;em&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met &lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government&#039;s hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;Most believe it&#039;s impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn&#039;t really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries&#039; unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p align=&quot;justify&quot;&gt;&lt;em&gt;Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.&lt;/em&gt;&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


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                <strong>The focus is now on the fiscal deficit -Renu Kohli</strong></h1>
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                <div align="justify">-Live Mint</div><p align="justify"><br /><em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em></p><p align="justify">With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.</p><p align="justify">The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.</p><p align="justify">The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.</p><p align="justify">Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?</p><p align="justify">Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.</p><p align="justify">More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.</p><p align="justify">It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.</p><p align="justify">On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.</p><p align="justify">A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.</p><p align="justify">A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.</p><p align="justify">A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.</p><p align="justify">But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.</p><p align="justify"><em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em></p>               </font>
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-Live Mint
</div>
<p align="justify">
<br />
<em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em>
</p>
<p align="justify">
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
</p>
<p align="justify">
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
</p>
<p align="justify">
Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
</p>
<p align="justify">
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
</p>
<p align="justify">
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
</p>
<p align="justify">
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
</p>
<p align="justify">
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
</p>
<p align="justify">
<em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em>
</p>',
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...',
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-Live Mint
</div>
<p align="justify">
<br />
<em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em>
</p>
<p align="justify">
With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.
</p>
<p align="justify">
The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.
</p>
<p align="justify">
Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?
</p>
<p align="justify">
Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.
</p>
<p align="justify">
More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.
</p>
<p align="justify">
It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.
</p>
<p align="justify">
On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.
</p>
<p align="justify">
A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.
</p>
<p align="justify">
But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.
</p>
<p align="justify">
<em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em>
</p>',
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-Live Mint



The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met 


With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be...'
$disp = '<div align="justify">-Live Mint</div><p align="justify"><br /><em>The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met </em></p><p align="justify">With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit.</p><p align="justify">The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met.</p><p align="justify">The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far.</p><p align="justify">Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line?</p><p align="justify">Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible.</p><p align="justify">More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections.</p><p align="justify">It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister.</p><p align="justify">On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon.</p><p align="justify">A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage.</p><p align="justify">A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months.</p><p align="justify">A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling.</p><p align="justify">But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help.</p><p align="justify"><em>Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.</em></p>'
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The focus is now on the fiscal deficit -Renu Kohli

-Live Mint The big question is whether commitment made by Chidambaram-to contain fiscal deficit at 4.8% of GDP-will be met With the current account deficit in check, the spotlight is now on the second major macroeconomic problem that needs to be fixed: the fiscal deficit. The big question is whether commitment made by finance minister P. Chidambaram in the budget-to contain the fiscal deficit at 4.8% of gross domestic product (GDP)-will be met. The gap between projected and actual revenue collections has expanded because economic growth has been much weaker than expected. Even the severe expenditure compression-government spending contracted 1.1% in the September quarter and in the first half of this fiscal year grew at only half the rate against the five-year trend-has been unable to address this problem so far. Meanwhile, the restrictive fiscal policy is hurting growth, which ties the government's hands even further. Can it stick to the red line? Most believe it's impossible given current fiscal trends. Until October, 84% of the deficit target was realized, compared to 71% last year-and way above the decade-and-a-half historical trend. Net tax revenues have grown under 7% year-on-year against 19.3% budgeted, even as October tax revenues grew more briskly at 23.4%. Against this, expenditure growth (18.3%, y-o-y) matches projections. With GDP growth averaging 4.6% in the first half versus the assumed 6%, a strong rebound in the remaining half that will be enough to bridge the gap is almost impossible. More fiscal austerity inevitably looms ahead, though some consider this a low probability outcome given accumulated under-recoveries of oil firms and expected increase in subsidy spending ahead of the general elections. It is not clear how the fiscal targets will be met, despite repeated assurances from the finance minister. On the revenue side, much depends on non-tax revenues or disinvestment. Just 4% of the Rs.40,000 crore of disinvestment receipts budgeted for this year are in the bag. Also, Rs.16,000 crore and Rs.40,000 crore from the Balco sale and telecom spectrum auctions remain untapped. With market conditions more favourable now and the recent clearance of seven disinvestment proposals by the cabinet, Rs.18,000 crore is expected to be mobilized soon. A sale of stake in SUUTI (Specified Undertaking of the Unit Trust of India) is another easy option as insurance firms like LIC can always buy this. It wouldn't really be disinvestment, but worth the risk in the light of rising uncertainty on fiscal slippage. A clean divestment slate so far plus weak growth has placed expenditure growth under hard scrutiny. There is more confidence on this front, with overall government spending growth severely restricted at 1.4% in the second half of 2012-13, as fiscal consolidation began. Reports indicate Rs.80,000 crore (or 0.7% of GDP) of planned spending cuts; this may well be so since this component grew at one-third its projected rate, or 10% year-on-year, in the first seven months. A large portion of cuts are likely in defence expenditure-this could also be carried forward-with additional breathing space from some ministries' unspent amounts. But the expected rolling over of subsidy carried the risk of the government losing credibility, as markets see through such fiddling. But in view of the commitment, there is every chance fiscal targets will be adhered to, even if with some technical help. Renu Kohli is a New Delhi-based macroeconomist.