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UP Elections: Myths, Truths… and a Riddle -Subodh Varma

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Was it welfare schemes? Or was it Hindutva? And, how much money did BJP spend?

Usually after election results come out, there is a dismantling of myths created during the elections and creation of new myths. This happens in all elections but when a significant state like Uttar Pradesh is involved – it’s a feast of theories. Then, there are riddles for which everyone has a solution.

First, have a look at the chart below which gives vote shares of major political parties across 2017 and 2022, based on Election Commission data. As we all know by now, Bharatiya Janata Party’s (BJP) vote share ticked up from 41% to 45% (all figures are rounded off) while the Samajwadi Party (SP) alliance share climbed up from 28% to 36%. The alliance itself has changed – in 2017, SP was aligned with Congress, while in 2022, it was aligned with a bunch of sub-regional parties, including the Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD).

Congress vote share declined further to a mere 2%, while Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) plummeted from 22% last time to 13% this time. The share of ‘others’ and independents too declined. With this baseline, let’s turn to the topsy-turvy world of myths and truths.

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