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UP Population Bill: Fighting Imaginary Demons -Subodh Varma

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Population growth is already slowing down across faiths. The Bill only serves to foster division.

The proposed UP Population Control Bill, brought in by the Yogi Adityanath-led BJP government in India’s largest state Uttar Pradesh, appears to be driven more by imagined fears than by any worries of population growth. Data over the past few decades shows clearly that population growth is slowing down irrespective of administrative action or inaction. This is an all India trend and UP is no exception. 

What has not been said officially by Chief Minister Adityanath or his party, but is being perceived as the real motive behind this move is the well-known but much discredited thesis that Muslim population is growing very fast, and that it may overtake Hindu population in the future. How this can happen is never substantiated by authentic data that is available in public domain. But simply raising the worry, perhaps, serves to meet political or electoral ends. Assembly elections are slated for next year in UP, so it is no surprise that this bogey has been resurrected.

WHAT IS THE DATA?

Total Fertility Rate (TFR), or the average number of children born to a woman, is one of the best measures of how populations increase or decrease over time. Let us look at the data on UP. It is available from the reports of various rounds of the National Family and Health Surveys (NFHS). Unfortunately, UP’s data for the latest (Fifth) round held in 2019-20 is not yet available as the pandemic seems to have interrupted the collection.

The chart below summarises the TFRs of Hindus, Muslims and total population in UP over 1998-99, which was the second round of NFHS, till 2015-16, the fourth round. Among Muslim women, the average number of children born per woman fell by about 35% from 4.76 in 1998-99 to 3.1 in 2015-16. This decline is more than the corresponding dip among Hindu women, which fell from 3.87 to 2.67 – a reduction of about 31%.

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