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UP to have 1cr unemployed youth by 2017: National Sample Survey Organisation -Arvind Singh Bisht
-The Times of India


LUCKNOW: For the Akhilesh Yadav government, the burgeoning unemployment problem comes as a daunting challenge. The 66th round of the National Sample Survey Organisation (NSSO) report puts the projection of unemployed youth in Uttar Pradesh in the age group of 15-35 at whopping 1 crore by the end of the ongoing 12th Five Year Plan (2012-17). They will be in addition to the backlog of around 32 lakh unemployed, who are already in the queue awaiting their chance.

The grim reality urgently calls for a drastic shift in planning and development approach before it becomes unmanageable. The spiralling problem may snowball into widespread social unrest and dejection with far-reaching political repercussions. Chief minister Akhilesh Yadav represents a generational change and owes much to the youth, who voted him to power. So the change for youth largely depends on the government's ability to address the problem of unemployment, which remains the core issue for job-seeking young population.

What comes as a real shock is the decline of agriculture workers at an alarming pace. There was a net decline of 49 lakh agriculture workers in the last five years in Uttar Pradesh. The NSSO report shows that the number of total agriculture workers went down from 403 lakh in 2004-05 to 369 lakh in 2009-10 and 354 lakh in 2011-12.

So, at present, only 52.41% of the total workers are now engaged in the UP's agriculture sector. Earlier it used to be as high as 78%. There has been a constant decline in the number of agriculture workers, but the drop in their number was rapid in the last five years. The declining trend continues and this is expected to dwindle further by 5% in the current financial year.

This indicates the poor performance of the agriculture sector, which is the mainstay of the state's economy. The sector has grown at the rate of 3-4%, which is much below the overall potential of the state.

Reasons for this are many. The major contributory factor is that agriculture has become far more unproductive due to rising cost of inputs, particularly fertilisers and seeds, besides unpredictable weather conditions like floods and droughts. Adding to this are the small land holdings, which are shrinking every passing year. The result is that there are too many small and marginal farmers who are living below subsistence level. The Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGS) is another factor that has driven agriculture labourers towards construction work. However, those engaged with the scheme are also not deemed better-paid and thus most of them are forced to survive on meager income.

Analysing the trend, former director of Giri Institute of Development Studies, AK Singh, says: "The shift of labourers from agriculture is a good sign, provided the workers are paid well and lead a decent life." But this is not the case in most conditions as the decent work is available to only a minority of 9.72% workers. Incidentally, since 2004-05 their number has shown a marginal increase from 9% to 9.72%. On the other hand, the number of casual labourers has risen from 100 lakh to 160 lakh, which shows a sharp increase from 16.9% to 24%.

The dismal situation of job availability in UP is further evident by the fact findings of the NSSO. It states that the work participation rate in UP remains at 33.3%, while the total number of workers has gone up from 667 lakh in 2004-05 to 675 in 2011-12. Thus it shows that 67% workers either have to go without any work or have to fend themselves on pecuniary wages. They are not bracketed in decent job conditions that contain security covers like medical or other risk insurance.

The employment scenario further makes a depressing reading. The manufacturing sector, considered the corner stone of the economy, has grown at snail's pace of 1.64%. The number of workers employed in this sector has risen from 84 lakh in 2004-05 to just 86 lakh in 2011-12. However, if the base year is taken as 2009-10, then the sector shows a sharp increase from 72 lakh to 86 lakh in 2011-12. As against the total workers, the sector employs 12.75%.

Construction sector shows a continued increase but at a lower rate. It accounts for 12.64% of total work force. The numbers rose from 37 lakh in 2004-05 to 79 lakh in 2009-10 and to 85 lakh in 2011-12. Incidentally, this was the period was when the state witnessed a large number of construction activities like dalit memorials and parks under the Mayawati regime.

So, the structure of workforce in UP is undergoing a change in favour of non-agricultural sector. The proportion of workers employed in agriculture sector dropped to 11.5 percentage points during 1999-2012. The proportion of workers in manufacturing sector has shown a small increase of 1.64% points. Construction sector, however, recorded impressive gain of 8.8 percentage points in its share in workers. Services also show a modest gain. Thus it is only low paid informal sector employment which has been increasing in the state.

Ironically, the issue of unemployment remains a matter of misplaced priority. The growth pattern adopted is also not employment-oriented. The best example of this is of the agriculture, which has witnessed a sharp mechanisation. Industries are not coming and the emphasis is only large industries rather than small and medium scale, which have more job potential. The allied sectors of agriculture like horticulture, food processing, fisheries, dairy and poultry farming are just in infancy in the state despite having huge potential. In the face of the prevailing situation, unemployment dole makes no answer to the vexed problem of job crunch.