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Uttarakhand chief secretary raises estimate of missing 10-fold from 350 to 3,000 -Pankaj Doval, DS Kunwar, Durgesh Nandan Jha & Rema Nagarajan
-The Times of India


DEHRADUN/ NEW DELHI: The official number of the missing in the Uttarakhand disaster sharply rose from 350 to 3,000 on Thursday, intensifying fears that the death toll is likely to eventually be much higher than what was earlier estimated. Unofficial estimates place the figure at the double the current official estimate.

The missing figure was given out by Uttarakhand chief secretary Subhash Kumar, who said, "The objective is to bring out the truth about the missing number of people so that their near and dear ones are not kept in the dark." With aerial surveys unable to spot survivors any more, the worst is feared about the missing.

In fact, the authorities said that rescue operations are likely to be over in the next few days. While 2,200 are still stranded in Badrinath, the Kedarnath and Gangotri areas are said to have been cleared. Security forces started to pull out from the Kedarnath-Gauri Kund axis. In Harsil there are a few stranded, but rains hampered their rescue.

The implication of the rescue operations being wound up is rather grim - it means that the hope of finding thousands of the missing is possibly fading. With bodies now being found hundreds of miles downstream in the Ganga and Yamuna (some were said to have been found in Allahabad, which is over 1,000 km downstream), the possibility of having a firm casualty figure seems remote.

Even as the deadly consequence of the calamity was emerging, the government started the process of mass cremation. Kumar said that a team led by DIG Sanjay Gunjyal conducted the cremation of 40 bodies with six priests carrying out the religious rites. Rains prevented the cremation of more bodies.

The high number of the missing and mass cremations could prevent closure for the relatives of thousands. While the authorities said that DNA samples were being collected for identification, some experts wondered if samples of teeth, root of the hair and skin, after so many days of damage due to decomposition, would be of any value. In other words, the problem of closure and psychological trauma of relatives might not be addressed by collection of DNA samples.

"The root of the hair and skin is at risk for damage due to decomposition and bacterial activity if their collection is delayed, as in this case. So we have suggested to the experts to preserve the long bones for identification of bodies," said Dr Sudhir Gupta, additional professor of forensic medicine and toxicology at the All India Institute of Medical Sciences (AIIMS), Delhi.

According to Dr Jagdish Prasad, the director general of health services, the identification of bodies through DNA sampling and tests is difficult in such disasters. "There are thousands of dead bodies which are unidentifiable. They have decayed. To preserve the DNA samples of all bodies may not really help," he said. Prasad said that identification through DNA testing is possible in individual cases where a relative claims that the deceased was his or her relative.

The health ministry official added that mass cremation was the only way out to save people from any possible epidemic. However, some doctors contest this view. They claim that most victims of such disasters do not suffer from diseases like tuberculosis, cholera and other infections that could spread to the local population through air or water. "The chances of these dead bodies causing epidemic are less. The government should arrange temporary morgue facilities and take all possible measures to identify the victims. The relatives of the deceased must know about the death or not of their dear ones or they will be subjected to lifelong psychological trauma," said one of the experts.

Dr Prathap Tharyan, psychiatry professor at CMC Vellore, who was involved in the post tsunami psycho-social support in Tamil Nadu, said: "Mass disposal of bodies might be a necessity, but it has a strong negative impact on the survivors who are often haunted by the fact that their family members might have been cremated or buried without any rituals. They feel the spirits do not get any peace because of this. This leads to them hearing sounds and being psychologically affected."

He added, "It is not really true that decomposing bodies increase the risk of disease unless the deaths have happened in an epidemic like plague." In fact, the Red Cross says there's no real danger from rotting corpses unless they have died of deadly infectious disease. In this case, deaths have occurred due to a horrendous calamity which is like death caused by accident.