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What if El Nino materialises in 2023? - Vinson Kurian

Hindu Businessline

El Nino is one piece in the mammoth jigsaw puzzle that the Pacific Ocean and its seasonal climatic patterns typify. Being the largest single body of water, the Pacific has an outsized influence on weather and climate across the globe. During El Niño, trade winds weaken and warm water gets pushed back East of the Pacific, towards the West coast of the Americas. 

Generally, El Niño occurs more frequently than La Niña. Most global models predict enhanced possibilities of the current La Nina ending sooner than later, and the Pacific shifting into an El Nino mode from this summer (2023) coinciding with the South-West monsoon in India.

El Nino will typically lead to drought. In the past, El Nino has resulted in drought or deficient southwest monsoon in the country. A deficient monsoon could affect the production of kharif crops. Paddy, a water guzzler, groundnut and pulses are the crops that are most likely to be affected in the case of a severe El Nino. Sugarcane and cotton output can also be hit.

India is usually prepared to face such eventualities. It is more so now as it has a Crop Weather Watch Group that monitors everything from the rainfall to crop sowing to water storage levels in major reservoirs. In the past, the government had asked growers to shift to coarse cereals from paddy due to deficient rainfall.

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