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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

What’s falling: Poverty or quality of analysis? -Santosh Mehrotra

-Deccan Herald

Dodgy data

Surjit Bhalla, India’s Executive Director (IMF), Arvind Virmani, former Chief Economic Advisor under UPA, and K Bhasin, in an IMF Working Paper, state that to estimate poverty, when no survey has been undertaken, is to take the most recent survey (2011-12) data and update individual consumption (or personal) income by the corresponding growth rate observed in the national accounts (NAS).

However, there are problems with estimating poverty based on the NAS estimate of private final consumption expenditure (PFCE). Practically no one in the world uses NAS estimates of consumption. It overestimates consumption.  

Using NAS to estimate poverty

First, Karshenas (2003) has argued that for national accounts, the basic problem is that private consumption is calculated as a residual, and errors in the estimation of other components of the GDP all impinge on the consumption estimate. Nobel economist Deaton also shows that from the estimates of production, imports and exports, the statistical office computes net domestic consumption. The final total is a residual; there is no direct measurement of consumption. As a result, errors in measuring exports, production, inventories, or animal feed are all cumulated into the estimate of consumption.

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