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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

What’s wrong with crop estimates that were off-mark last crop year -Subramani Ra Mancombu

-The Hindu Business Line

Experts say current manual methods are error-prone, moot scientific process

The advance crop estimate made by the Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers’ Welfare usually differs between the first and subsequent three ones before it comes out with the final estimate.

However, the difference has seldom caused problems in the agricultural markets or led to complaints of not reflecting what the trade has felt is the ground reality. But some of the estimates made during the last crop year (July 2021–June 2022) have resulted in the trade and industry airing their grievances, particularly since the price spike turned out to be too sharp. 

The wheat example

One of the examples of this is the estimate on wheat production this year. Initially, it was estimated at a record 111.32 million tonnes (mt). The estimate was made even as a heatwave swept the country during March this year. 

With demand for exports being huge this year, particularly in view of the Russia-Ukraine war, as India was expected to fill in the void created by both countries, open market prices were far higher than the minimum support price of 2,015 a quintal. 

This was since some traders bought huge quantities, expecting to tap the export opportunity. However, this resulted in the procurement for the central pool by the Food Corporation of India dropping by 57%. Subsequently, the government banned wheat exports from May 13, catching exporters and traders by surprise.

The trade blamed the Agriculture Ministry for the problem, saying it had estimated the wheat production higher. The Ministry subsequently revised the estimate lower to 106.84 mt.

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