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What will be India’s GDP in 2022-’23? The government and RBI have given three answers in 11 days -Rajrishi Singhal

-Scroll.in/ Qz.com

While the economic survey and Budget estimate the growth in the coming fiscal year to be 8%-8.5% and 6.6% respectively, RBI forecasts it to be 7.8%.

Indians have enjoyed an ever-expanding array of choices for consumer goods over the past couple of decades. In this season of cheer and goodwill, they now have the pleasure of even selecting a version of India’s growth perspectives, depending on the risks playing out.

Three versions are on offer. Over the past 10 days, the Indian public has been furnished with separate estimates of India’s expected gross domestic product for next year, 2022-’23.

First, on January 31, the finance ministry presented the government’s economic survey for the current year, 2021-’22, which also provided a line of sight to next year’s GDP. The estimate from the office of the chief economic adviser: 8%-8.5% real growth, that is growth adjusted for inflation, over 2021-’22.

Next day, February 1, came the government’s Budget for next year, an annual exercise in estimating how much it will earn through different revenue streams (through taxes or selling off government-owned companies, like Air India) and how much it will spend on salaries or roads and bridges. The government’s Budget pencils in the year’s tax collection projections on the basis of a rough estimate of how the economy will grow. Finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman, in an unusual display of conservatism, expects India’s nominal GDP to grow by 11.1% during 2022-’23.

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