Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 73
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 73
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 74
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::printArticle() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 74
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 88
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;p&gt;Carbon Copy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot; title=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;p&gt;Carbon Copy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot; title=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average..."/>
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                <strong>Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India -  Deekshita Baruah</strong></h1>
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                <p>Carbon Copy</p><p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p><p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p><p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p><p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p><p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/" title="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>               </font>
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    <link rel="canonical" href="https://im4change.in/<pre class="cake-error"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none');"><b>Notice</b> (8)</a>: Undefined variable: urlPrefix [<b>APP/Template/Layout/printlayout.ctp</b>, line <b>8</b>]<div id="cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-trace" class="cake-stack-trace" style="display: none;"><a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Code</a> <a href="javascript:void(0);" onclick="document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-context').style.display = (document.getElementById('cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-context').style.display == 'none' ? '' : 'none')">Context</a><pre id="cakeErr67ec4b299b94d-code" class="cake-code-dump" style="display: none;"><code><span style="color: #000000"><span style="color: #0000BB"></span><span style="color: #007700">&lt;</span><span style="color: #0000BB">head</span><span style="color: #007700">&gt;
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&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;p&gt;Carbon Copy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot; title=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

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&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;
$disp = &#039;&lt;p&gt;Carbon Copy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot; title=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;&#039;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average..."/>
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                <strong>Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India -  Deekshita Baruah</strong></h1>
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                <p>Carbon Copy</p><p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p><p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p><p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p><p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p><p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/" title="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>               </font>
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		&#039;title&#039; =&gt; &#039;Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India -  Deekshita Baruah&#039;,
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&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;,
	&#039;disp&#039; =&gt; &#039;&lt;p&gt;Carbon Copy&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot; title=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;&#039;,
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&lt;p&gt;The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &amp;ldquo;normal&amp;rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&amp;mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&amp;mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&amp;ntilde;a&amp;mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&amp;mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&amp;ntilde;o&amp;mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&amp;nbsp;&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;An El Ni&amp;ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&amp;deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&amp;ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&amp;ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&amp;ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &amp;ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&amp;ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&amp;rdquo;.&lt;/p&gt;

&lt;p&gt;Please &lt;a href=&quot;https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/&quot;&gt;click here &lt;/a&gt;to read more&lt;/p&gt;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&amp;rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...&#039;
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average..."/>
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                <strong>Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India -  Deekshita Baruah</strong></h1>
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                <p>Carbon Copy</p><p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p><p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p><p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p><p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p><p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/" title="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>               </font>
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<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p>

<p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p>

<p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...',
	'disp' => '<p>Carbon Copy</p><p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p><p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p><p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p><p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p><p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/" title="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>',
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	'title' => 'Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India -  Deekshita Baruah',
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<p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p>

<p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p>

<p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p>

<p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p>

<p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>
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The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average...'
$disp = '<p>Carbon Copy</p><p>The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year&rsquo;s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year&rsquo;s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the &ldquo;normal&rdquo; range, albeit narrowly.&nbsp;</p><p>Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)&mdash;a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean&mdash;is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Ni&ntilde;a&mdash;the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years&mdash;the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Ni&ntilde;o&mdash;the warm phase of the cycle.&nbsp;</p><p>With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Ni&ntilde;o phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Ni&ntilde;o developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Ni&ntilde;o developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.&nbsp;</p><p>Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower.</p><p>An El Ni&ntilde;o condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5&deg;C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Ni&ntilde;a, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Ni&ntilde;a is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Ni&ntilde;o. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, &ldquo;Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Ni&ntilde;o conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices&rdquo;.</p><p>Please <a href="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/" title="https://carboncopy.info/why-an-el-nino-in-2023-is-bad-news-for-india/">click here </a>to read more</p>'
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Why an El Nino in 2023 is Bad News for India - Deekshita Baruah

Carbon Copy The India Meteorological Department (IMD) this week delivered its first long-range forecast for this year’s monsoon. In terms of total rainfall observed over the season, the IMD expects this year’s monsoon to bring 96% of the Long Period Average (with a modelling error of +/-5%). The forecast, if it materialises, places monsoon performance within the “normal” range, albeit narrowly.  Despite the normal forecast, mid-way into summer 2023, India is jittery. Big shifts underway in oceanic and atmospheric circulations could carry momentous implications for South Asia. The El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO)—a natural warming and cooling cycle originating in the Pacific Ocean—is increasingly showing signs of a phase shift. After a prolonged La Niña—the cool phase of the ENSO, which lasted three years—the Pacific is showing signs of warming, indicating the return of the El Niño—the warm phase of the cycle.  With sea surface temperatures gradually rising in the equatorial Pacific, forecasters around the world expect the transition to an ENSO-neutral state across the Northern Hemisphere by May 2023, and then possibly move into an El Niño phase. It has been suggested that there is about a 50% probability of an El Niño developing between July-September 2023. The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) has also stated that the probability of El Niño developing this year gradually increases from 15% in April-June to 35% in May-July, reaching significantly higher chances of around 55% during June-August.  Historical data shows that there were 15 moderate and strong El Nino events between 1951 and 2022. Of these years, the Indian monsoon was deficient in 8 years and in another 3 years, the monsoon rainfall was on the lower side of the norm. Therefore, in a moderate to strong El Nino year, there is a 73% chance that monsoon rainfall in India will be below the long-term normal. The last major El Nino event was in 2015 and Indian monsoon rainfall was 13% lower. An El Niño condition occurs when oceanic temperatures in the equatorial Pacific Ocean become warmer than average (0.5°C above the long-term average) and east winds blow weaker than normal. Meanwhile, during La Niña, water temperatures become cooler than normal because of the upwelling of cold water from the bottom of the sea. While La Niña is associated with good rainfall in Southeast Asia, the contrary is true with El Niño. The finance ministry has raised concerns over the possible impact of El Niño conditions on India. In its monthly economic report for January, the ministry said, “Some meteorological agencies predict the return of El Niño conditions in India this year. If these predictions are accurate, then monsoon rains could be deficient, leading to lower agricultural output and higher prices”. Please click here to read more