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Why did the exit polls get the Bihar results wrong? -Amandeep Shukla

-Hindustan Times

Most predicted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagatbandhan, but the alliance eventually lost out in a close contest that went down to the wire, and which was decided by wafer-thing margins in some constituencies.

The numerical see-saw presented by the Bihar election results through the day was not just hard on political parties and their supporters but also on psephologists who were wondering how they could have, yet again, gotten things as wrong as they did.

Most predicted a clear win for the Tejashwi Yadav led Mahagatbandhan, but the alliance eventually lost out in a close contest that went down to the wire, and which was decided by wafer-thing margins in some constituencies.

Such surveys measure vote share and then use an algorithm to convert this into seats, with the conversion usually being the cause of erroneous projections.

This time, many even got their vote shares wrong.

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