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Resource centre on India's rural distress
 
 

World food prices may rise from 31-101% by 2050

A projected global population of 9 billion concentrated mostly in the developing world and a higher income level alone are enough to put pressure on world’s supply of food grains. But with changes in temperature levels and rainfall pattern beyond an acceptable limit on account of climate change, the pressures on food prices can be expected to enormous. World prices of staple food grains are projected to rise from anywhere from 31 per cent to 101 per cent by 2050 as pressures on food supply increase.

A study by the Internation Food Policy Research Institute suggests that for most farmers adapting to changes in temperatures and rainfall levels will pose as major challenge to productivity, resulting in more difficulties in managing risk.

The International Food Policy Research Institute study, Food Security, Farming, and Climate Change to 2050: Scenarios, Results, Policy Options, makes it clear that policy interventions are paramount to ensuring sustainable agricultural production. The challenge for governments is to allocate limited financial resources in order to sustainably feed a world confronting the challenges of adapting to climate change, a growing population, and reduced poverty.

The floods in Pakistan this year and excessive heat and drought in Russia that resulted in wildfires leading to a grain embargo gives us a clear idea of the problems that lie ahead.

For India, this takes on added importance. The UPA government is working towards making availability of a certain minimum amount food grains a legal entitlement, the increased pressures of world food production and prices are an important consideration in the framing of a food security law. This would make taking policy decisions to counter the lower levels of availability of food grain and the attendant spiraling of prices a central concern for India.

The IFPRI study considers three combinations of income and population growth. The first is a baseline scenario with moderate income and population growth, second, a pessimistic scenario with low income growth and high population growth), and third, an optimistic scenario with high income growth and low population growth. The three income –population scenario have also been studied in combination with four plausible climate scenarios that range from slightly to substantially wetter and hotter on average, and an implausible scenario of perfect mitigation.


The study is finds that upto 2050, we can expect real increase in agricultural prices. The increasing demand driven by population and income growth is far greater than productivity growth which is affected by the negative productivity effects of climate change. Evenin the most optimistic projection, that is with perfect mitigation efforts, the rise in income and population, prices of rice would rise by nearly 11 per cent between 2010 and 2050, while in the most pessimistic projection, the price of maize would increase by 53.9 per cent in the same period.

The situation becomes more dire once the impact of climate change is taken into consideration. The range of the price increases is between 31.2 per cent for rice in the most optimistic projection, while it is 100.7 per cent for maize in the baseline scenario.

Policy interventions suggested include greater focus on increasing agricultural productivity to meet growing demand resulting from growing incomes and population. This will come with the added benefit of improving rural incomes. Improved agricultural productivity efforts should also be accompanied by efforts to environmental threats from increased production.

It suggests policy actions to achieve broad-based economic growth that reaches the poor, improve productivity in crops that are important to poor farmers and consumers, and strengthen trade to cope with regional disparities in the agricultural effects of climate change will help increase poor people’s resilience to climate change.

Alongside, it has been suggested that it is “critical” to start slowing emissions growth immediately with a goal of being carbon-negative agriculture by 2050. Agriculture, broadly defined, contributes as much as one-third of greenhouse gas emissions.

The study concludes that challenges are likely to increase beyond 2050, when the climate change threat becomes much more severe. It suggests that reducing emissions growth to minimize the effects of climate change “is thus essential to avoid a calamitous post-2050 future.”